Welcome to the Academy of Market Intelligence (AMI)™

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Prof. Dr. Thomas Fletcher Grooms (Bio), Father of Market IntelligenceDiscovered the term market intelligence and wrote the first peer reviewed study in the world on market Intelligence giving it life as its own distinguished concept – WELCOME

Mission is to advance new ideas and promote enduring knowledge in a scholarly forum for the business, government and academic community in which outstanding thinkers and scholars are encouraged to continuous learning in a worldwide sharing of scholarly analyses on the understanding and value of market intelligence.

* Markets and Praxeology

* Analytics¹º and Futurology¹¹¹

* Business Science

 

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World Multi-Dimensional and Multi-National Specialist Speaker

Prof. Dr. Thomas Fletcher Grooms (Bio), Ph.D. Henley (Marketing-HBS-England) at University of ReadingBrunel University, Ph.D. (Global Business-US), J.D. (Law-Business and International), M.B.A. (Marketing…Manufacturing, Operations, Logistics), M.Sc. (Marketing…International Business), B.S. (Political Science)  

Market Intelligence™ Speech

What is Market Intelligence? Application? Benefits? 

 

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Official Definition of Market Intelligence™ and Intelligence Terminology

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The Official Definition of Market Intelligence (MKI), Intelligence (I), Political Intelligence (POLI), Military Intelligence (MI), Business Intelligence (BI), Knowledge Management Systems (KMS), Marketing Research (MKTR), Marketing Information Systems (MKTIS), Competitive Intelligence (CI), Competitor Intelligence (CRI), Marketing Intelligence (MKTI), Strategic Intelligence (SI), Tactical Intelligence (TI), Counter-intelligence (CTI), Real-time Intelligence (RTI), and Whisper Intelligence (WI) click on the blue to learn from the first peer reviewed study in the world on market intelligence.

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The Official Definition of Market Intelligence

Market Intelligence (MKI) is gathered through internal analysis, competition analysis, and market analysis about the total environment forming a broad spectrum of assembled knowledge, which is then used for developing scenarios so that timely reporting of vital foreknowledge for future planning in the areas of strategic, tactical, and counter-intelligence decision-making can be applied operationally and strategically in respect to the whole organization’s strategic interest for the whole market (Grooms 1988).

The structure of the Model of Market Intelligence is a double helix that can usurp to make copies of itself in other dimensions and realities to reveal an ever infinity of knowledge and forecasts. The Market Intelligence Model provides a missing link present in organizations at the highest levels. The model gives reassurance to help ensure a broad scope of checks and balances protecting the CEO, senior executives and government senior officials as well as the organization, its value and performance. Market Intelligence is what makes intelligence, intelligence. (Total market environment)

AMI Journal™ Futurology Forecasts Research : A Chronometry from Around the World™

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Digital Keyhole 

July 2014

America Transformation of Non-recovery Recovery to Hyperinflation No. 24 USA 2014 contributor Neil Krieger, Economist and Investment Counselor with a Common Man’s View of Political Economy.

 

DATA SET AND FINANCIAL STATEMENT EVALUATION FORM TEMPLATE FOR PERSONAL USE This handbook provides a semi-automated evaluation form that eliminates the tedium of calculation and sorts the ratios into related groupings that facilitate the financial analysis of an enterprise or counterparty. 

A CD containing the data set and the reports and graphs and a Template Evaluation Form is available for $50.00 USD.

Please make your check payable to: Sigmund Krieger.

The author does not accept credit cards.

Mail your check to: Sigmund Krieger

1202 Timber Ridge Drive

Euless, Texas 76039

The CD will be sent by USPS.

Email inquiries should be directed to: skrieger@sbcglobal.net

 

June 2014

European Auto Review UK 2014 contributor Peter N C Cooke, the most published author on the Automotive Industry in Europe; PMG Professor of Automotive Management and head of the centre for Automotive Management at the University of Buckingham.

Wealth Out of Little Slips of Paper – & - Birth of New Petro Dollar the Yuan Ruble Ratio No. 23 USA 2014 contributor Neil Krieger, Economist and Investment Counselor with a Common Man’s View of Political Economy.

Inequalities of Income and Wealth Is A Good Thing – & - Prosecute Common Financial Fraud No. 22 USA 2014 contributor Neil Krieger, Economist and Investment Counselor with a Common Man’s View of Political Economy.

Russia Dances the Dance of India Russia 2014 contributor Svetlana Savitskaya, http://perorusi.ru/s/  famous Russian artist and author, project http://perorusi.ru.

Headline Today™ from the 4-Four Corners of the World

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Walk in the Park

Immigration – Multiculturalism – Political Correctness – Integration – Affirmative Action – Melting Pot – Equality – Prejudice – Racism - ALL FAILED Why is the world better off with history’s largest social experiment?

“ALL the Kings Horses and ALL the Kings Men” could not put the world back together again. (excerpt taken from children’s poem Humpty Dumpty)

Social experiments by governments around the world, all of which are totally committed to taking more and more to keep re-distribute of wealth from becoming a reality through work and thrift.

History is our teacher. This kind of confluence of unprecedented artificial formal social stimulus experiment from governments will not happen again.

But in these extreme times, history teaches smart people to understand you do not get something for nothing. At the same time, the vast majority out there will fall for every something-for-nothing miracle government cure.

History teaches that Immigration – Multiculturalism – Political Correctness – Integration – Affirmative Action – Melting Pot – Equality – Prejudice – Racism are super potent and highly dangerous suppressants that has prolonged determinants.   

History has taught governments nothing, it seems. This grand social experiment is no more than a last gasp of desperation designed to keep the greatest theoretical social attempt in history going forward – which is by definition is simply not possible.

Forced government social programs have failed. Left the world in turmoil. Left the world in chaos. Left the world broke. People have lost faith in government. People have lost faith in people in government.

People still prefer their own race. People still prefer their own prejudices. People still prefer their segregation. People still prefer their own choice. People still prefer to believe in their own culture. People still prefer to believe in their own country. People still prefer their liberty, freedom and family. People still prefer that they run their government and country.

People still prefer that Immigration - Multiculturalism – Political Correctness – Integration – Affirmative Action – Melting Pot – Equality – Prejudice – Racism be thrown in the garbage where it belongs. (Heritage Foundation)

 

Communist Argument Led by the US President & Democrat Party Should one wonder why history repeats itself? 

Communist Argument

President Barack Obama, speaking on the economy, told an audience in Osawatomie, Kansas: “‘The market will take care of everything,’ they tell us… But here’s the problem: It doesn’t work. It has never worked… I mean, understand, it’s not as if we haven’t tried this theory.” 

To believe what the president and many others say about the market’s not working requires that one be grossly uninformed or dishonest.

Capitalist Argument

The key features of a free market system are private property rights and private ownership of the means of production. In addition, there is a large measure of peaceable voluntary exchange. By contrast, communist systems feature severely limited private property rights and government ownership or control of the means of production.

People who live in countries closer to the free market end of the economic spectrum not only have far greater income than people who live in countries toward the communist end but also enjoy far greater human rights protections.

According to the “Economic Freedom of the World” report — by James Gwartney, Robert Lawson and Joshua Hall — nations ranking in the top quartile with regard to economic freedom had an average per capita GDP of $37,691 in 2010, compared with $5,188 for those in the bottom quartile.

In the freest nations, the average income of the poorest 10 percent of their populations was $11,382. In the least free nations, it was $1,209.

Remarkably, the average income of the poorest 10 percent in the economically freer nations is more than twice the average income of those in the least free nations.

Most of our major problems are a result of government.

We should recognize that unfettered government and crony capitalism, not unfettered markets, are the cause of our current economic problems and why the U.S. has sunk to the rank of 17th in the 2013 “Economic Freedom of the World” report. (Walter E. Williams – John M. Olin distinguished Professor of Economics at George Mason University)

 

Socialism (Equality) & Communism (Dictatorship) vs. Capitalism ( Inequality & Liberty) Equally poor or individual opportunity to succeed; ask the question if would you rather be born poor in a poor country or born poor in a rich and prosperous country?

Capitalism produced 2-two million new millionaires last year to a record 13.7 million millionaires through individual opportunity of self effort. Socialism and Communism to close the gap between rich and poor has made the poor poorer and destroyed much of the working capital that produces jobs for those who need to work for someone else in order to have a job.

Income for the poor rose with affirmative action, political correctness, and income re-distribution 0.4 percent. Income for those individuals who took the initiative to improve their lives gained 22.0 – 30.0 percent.

The secret and lesson to learn is not to hate the rich, what others have, or listen to government petitioning your vote through sorrow; but, learn the game of Capitalism about how to make yourself successful.

(Research Report from Condon at The Associated Press of more then 4,500 people in 23 countries)

 

President Obama Approval Rating Clings to 9% as Worst President in U.S. History What do you do when a country is under siege?

US Confidence in Obama

 

 

 

 

 

Countries are working to achieve political independence from the US sphere. They should. The American people are under siege from their US President and Congress.

What is at issue is whether economies throughout the world will let financial leverage dismantle the power of elected governments, and hence of democracy. Governments are sovereign. People are sovereign.

World central banks now rig all asset prices. “The system we have now,” Stockman says, “is one in which the Fed decides, through a Politburo of planners sitting in Washington, how much liquidity is necessary, what the interest rate should be, what the unemployment rate should be, and what economic growth should be.” 

 “There is no honest pricing left at all anywhere in the world because central banks everywhere manipulate and rig the price of all financial assets.” We cannot even analyze the economy in the traditional sense anymore because so much of it depends not on market forces but on the whims of people at the Fed.” (David Stockman – Former U.S. Rep. and U.S. Budget Director)

At issue is who shall rule the world: the emerging 1% as a financial oligarchy, or elected governments.

The two sets of aims are antithetical: rising living standards and national independence, or a renting economy, austerity and international dependency. (Michael Hudson, author)

 

Obama’s Muslim Army Who’s side is Washington on?

ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) an enemy of the US and the army invading Iraq, by order of the White House was originally trained and armed by the CIA in Jordan to attack the Syrian government.  Now ISIS is a more declared enemy of the US.

ISIS was kicked out of Al Qaeda headed by Ayman al Zawahiri (Osama bin Laden’s successor) for being too extreme. Now, ISIS places oil reserves in southern Iraq in jeopardy. (Czeschin Report)

 

Obama Surrenders Iraq and Afghanistan to Iran Will the unity of Muslims be broken? 

The Obama administration lost both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars — a sentiment being offered by former Vice President Dick Cheney; and several other high-ranking officials who voted to start and end the war. (Weiss Research)

 

East (Islam) vs. West (Liberty) World War III Will faith in government be restored?  

Case for Islam…Islam Case for War

New Axis Russia, Iran, China, North Korea, Serbia, Chechnya, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Belarus, Syria, Sudan, Libya, Iraq, Venezuela (and growing…Maybury Research)

Case for Liberty…any contributors?

Old Axis Washington, Canada, England, Europe, Australia, Japan

 

White House Diplomacy Neutered When will the US recover from Washington? 

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has even admitted that the U.S. may not be perceived as being as powerful as it once was. With America’s threat of force effectively neutered, it becomes more likely that the countries we once held in check are now gearing up for aggressive acts on their neighbors. (Press Report)

 

2014 – WW III

2014- WW III

 

 

 

 

 

1989 – 2014 Brush Wars and Period of Re-Alignment

1989-2014 End Cold War

 

 

 

 

 

1959 – 1989 Cold War

1959-1989 Cold War

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ukraine or US & Europe in Undeclared War with Russia War to end all war, again?

White House orders NATO and US military exercises in Ukraine this summer to establish a military base (James Jeffrey – Washington Post). Purpose of the exercise is to defend the US dollar (Casey Research). This is reckless trop deployments with a credit-crazed military (Stansberry Research).

 

Battlefield Now Prepped Will it be bullets or butter?

For every major economic power throughout history, when governments became bankrupt and desperate for cash, they imploded by attacking others and their very own citizens, through sleight-of-hand tax increases, through confiscatory policies that first racked everyone’s money, then confiscated it, through loss of civil liberties, through propaganda and more, lots more.

This is what the United States is doing now. Russia is doing the same thing. Putin is rallying the national psyche. The Russian economy, weakened internally by corruption, by alcoholism, by declining revenues from the three-year bear market in commodities, is not in much better shape than Europe or the United States.

So the battlefield is now prepped. Russia versus the West. Russia versus Europe and the United States.

U.K companies are most worried about their financial services in Russia. France is worried about military sales and luxury goods. Germany has the biggest trade with Russia. And Switzerland and Germany also have the biggest banking and loan exposure to Russia.

Billions of dollars in foreign investment in some of the world’s biggest untapped oil reserves are at risk. Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), for instance, has drilling rights to 11.4 million net acres (46,134 square kilometers) in Russia, the company’s biggest single cache of drilling rights outside the United States. (John C.K. Daly – Oilprice.com)

Vladimir Putin’s incursion into Ukraine and the international condemnation that followed have not put a dent in Russia’s exports of gas and raw materials. Putin plans to roll back limits on Chinese investment in Russia. This will help replace Moscow’s lost access to Western capital.(Bloomberg)

 

White House Drives The World to World War III Is embarrassment worth war?

“The CIA director was sent to Kiev to launch a military suppression of the Russian separatists in the eastern and southern portions of Ukraine, former Russian territories for the most part that were foolishly attached to the Ukraine in the early years of Soviet rule.

Washington’s plan to grab Ukraine overlooked that the Russian and Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine were not likely to go along with their insertion into the EU and NATO while submitting to the persecution of Russian speaking peoples.  Washington has lost Crimea, from which Washington intended to eject Russia from its Black Sea naval base.

Instead of admitting that its plan for grabbing Ukraine has gone amiss, Washington is unable to admit a mistake and, therefore, is pushing the crisis to more dangerous levels.

If Ukraine dissolves into secession with the former Russian territories reverting to Russia, Washington will be embarrassed that the result of its coup in Kiev was to restore the Russian provinces of Ukraine to Russia.  To avoid this embarrassment, Washington is pushing the crisis toward war.” (Paul Craig Roberts – Institute for Political EconomyNew Great Game)

 

U.S. Reaffirms Commitment to Protect Japan Japan not so sure?

The US is vulnerable to losing Japan as an ally. (Guardian News)

 

U.S. Reaffirms Commitment to Protect Israel Israel not so sure?

President Obama said, “The US will not support Israel”. (Israel Now News) 

 

WWIII One step from war?

Professor Stephen Cohen, Russian studies professor at NYU, said that this is the worst East-West crisis since the Cuban missile crisis in 1962. Russia’s grievance is the belief the U.S. has betrayed assurances given when the Soviet Union broke up, that NATO would not expand into Russia’s front yard. But the U.S. push into Ukraine became undeniable with the release of Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland’s potty-mouth diplomacy.

Long-time foreign correspondent Eric Margolis says Ukraine was too close for Russian comfort. “Unsubtle US efforts to bring ex-Russian Ukraine and the vital Sevastopol naval base in Crimea under NATO control — no doubt to punish Russia for supporting Syria and Iran — proved the last straw for the Kremlin.”

Now NATO’s secretary general has just confirmed its expansionistic plans and suspended cooperation with Russia. At the same time, Ukraine’s parliament has voted unanimously to conduct joint military exercises with NATO. Cohen says that in this tinderbox environment, we need to be careful about reckless NATO troop movements.

If NATO moves its troops to the Polish-west Ukrainian border, cautions Professor Cohen, much less into west Ukraine itself, Russian President Putin will almost certainly send his troops into southern and eastern Ukraine. If that happens we will have “an eye-ball to eye-ball confrontation between American and Russian military power.”

“Then we will be one step from war.”

It also pulls another block out from the foundation of the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency that will have hugely negative implications for funding the U.S. government’s debts. (Weiss Research)

 

United States and Russia Re-Align Allies Divide the world and conquer?

United States and Europe with Russia and China are influencing new world state alliances for the military and economic. There is no longer a balance of power.  

 

Socialism The Worldwide Status Quo What is the most effective way to control the masses?

With every country in the world Socialist, the most effective way to keep the Elite Wealthy wealthy is to make all others equal in status, pay, and wealth. It is understandable why Capitalism is opposed so strongly by those in government and by the Elite Wealthy class.  

World wealthy classes preserve their own wealth through controlling the economy by raising taxes (socialism), slashing wages (socialism), and cutting social services (socialism) for the working class. (Weiss Research)

 

Ukraine What countries make up the former USSR?

History is on the side of Russia. The former USSR was Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan.

The vote in Crimea was historic at 96% in favor of secession, creating to every government of every country that now fears secessionist movements within their own country.

Sanctions threaten 30% of Europe’s natural gas, which comes from Russia and almost 80% of that gas flows through the Ukraine.

 

Foreign Presidents Why does the United States have to import its Presidents from other countries and cannot produce one out of the American education system?

If you want a correct answer, do NOT ask a business person, do NOT ask anyone in government, do NOT ask an education administrator, do NOT ask anyone except a Teacher who does the work and closest to the problem.

 

WAR in Middle East, East China Sea, Artic, and Ukraine Threaten Nobel Peace Prize Listen closely, as these are the sounds of war.

Middle East

2008 September Middle East War

2013 September Middle East War

East China Sea

Conflict for War

East-South China Sea

ADIZ (Air Defence Identification Zone) over East China Sea Region

Artic

Arctic Oil & Military

Ukraine

Ukraine

 

Energy Puzzle™

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Economics

July 2014

FREE Other services charge hundreds of dollars a month for this type of information – with us it’s FREE.

Oilprice.com has taken the newsfeeds of every oil & gas company traded in the major exchanges in the U.S., Canada, UK & Australia and created a very easy to use webpage that shows all of these results as soon as they are released.

It’s incredibly easy to use and allows you to select the exact exchange or country you are interested in: Oilprice.com/oilcompanynews Sign up today…

Exchanges: United States: Nasdaq, NYSE, AMEX, All OTC exchanges Canada: TSX, TSXV UK: FTSE, AIM Australia: ASX

Mexico Shale In Hands of Drug Gangs

Canada New Negligence Pipeline Law

China Russia Oil Game

 

June 2014

Black Sea LNG…A Devastating Lesson: Geo-economic Warfare

World Cup Soccer CO2

Obama’s Climate Change Is Leaking Methane (CH4)

US Companies, People, Country Rebel Against Obama Orders As White House Usurp Authority

World’s Five Most Important Oil Fields

 

World Oil Reserves

Oil Reserves

 

 

 

 

 

 

World Oil Supply

World Oil Supply

 

 

 

 

 

 

Safest Energy

Safest Energy

 

 

 

 

US & Canada Pipelines

US Canada Pipelines

 

 

 

 

 

Europe Dependent on Russian Gas to Keep Lights On

Country Share of gas supply from Russia
Estonia 100%
Finland 100%
Latvia 100%
Lithuania 100%
Slovakia  98%
Bulgaria  92%
Czech Republic  78%
Greece  76%
Hungary  60%
Slovenia  52%
Austria  49%
Poland  48%
Germany  36%

(Czeschin Report)

 

Nuclear Electricity Generating Countries

Nuclear Electricity Generating Countries

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Top Oil Producing Countries 

Oil Producing Countries

Top Oil Production Countries 

Oil Production

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply Countries 

Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply Disruptions

 

 

 

 

OPEC Oil Spare Production Capacity 

OPEC Spare Capacity

 

 

 

 

 

 

North America Proved Oil Reserves

North America Proved Oil Reserves

 

 

 

 

Global Copper Consumption

Global Copper Consumption

 

 

 

 

 

OPTactical – Game-Changing Energy Intel Strategic Analysis of Intelligence for the Energy Industry For more information, please contact:

James Stafford

President

Telephone: +44 203 239 4080

Email: james@op-tactical.com

OP-Tactical

Enigma Report™

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July 2014

“Whatever you think, whatever you believe,
whatever your opinion, whatever you disagree, it pays to consider to be prepared.”
- Thomas Fletcher Grooms

A STUDY IN CONTRADICTIONS 

Man Playing Chess Game

 

 

 

 

Update

Real Inflation 20148% first of year (Weiss Research) to ↑ 11% now (Thomson Reuters CRB Index)

First Quarter GDP Decline ↓ 2.9% (Department of Commerce)

GDP Decline 2007-2014

GDP Decline

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Look Who Is Exempt from Obamacare (National Health TAX…Largest Tax Increase in US History)

(1) The President’s and their Families

(2) Congress and their Families

(3) Supreme Court and their Families

(4) 1,200 Corporations and Unions

Economically and financially, the new law will bankrupt an already struggling middle class who has, in many cases, seen a four-fold increase in their monthly premiums.

By all accounts, life for those people is going to change dramatically in coming years because as much as 15% of their income will now be taken from them by force in the form of what the U.S. Supreme Court has classified as a mandated tax.

The death panels may not exist by name, but they most assuredly exist within the bureaucracy managed by the U.S. government, as evidenced by the experiences of actual people currently enrolled in the Obamacare system: 

Obamacare is denied at most cancer hospitals according to a recent Associated Press survey. Only four out of 19 of the nation’s best cancer hospitals who replied to the survey said they will accept patient’s insurance from all of the healthcare exchanges within their state, in effect excluding most people who are signing up for coverage under the Affordable Care Act, commonly referred to as Obamacare. In simple terms: If you get cancer you will not get medical care.

Again, in simple terms, An Instantaneous Collapse of Obamacare Services:

First, if you’re “27″ the average premium is $266.20/month or $3,194.40 per year. 

While the law may never be repealed and everybody who signed up thinks they still have health insurance, when it matters most there may well not be a doctor on the list who will be willing to help you. Why?

Because the government will outright deny the medical services and simply refuse to pay the doctor to provide it. That is a De Facto death panel. (Stansberry Research)

 

Cato Institute Study: Welfare Benefits Pay More Than Minimum Wage Job

The Cato Institute released an updated study (original study in 1955) showing that welfare benefits pay more than a minimum wage job in 33 states and the District of Columbia.

Even worse, welfare pays more than $15 per hour in 13 states.

According to the study, welfare benefits have increased faster than minimum wage.

It is now more profitable to sit at home than it is to earn an honest day’s pay.

Hawaii is the biggest offender, where welfare recipients earn $29.13 per hour, or a $60,590 yearly salary, all for doing nothing.

Here is the list of the states where the pre-tax equivalent salary that welfare recipients receive is higher than having a job:

1. Hawaii : $60,590

2. District of Columbia : $50,820

3. Massachusetts : $50,540

4. Connecticut : $44,370

5. New York : $43,700

6. New Jersey : $43,450

7. Rhode Island : $43,330

8. Vermont : $42,350

9. New Hampshire : $39,750

10. Maryland : $38,160

11. California : $37,160

12. Oregon : $34,300

13. Wyoming: $32,620

14. Nevada: $29,820

15. Minnesota: $29,350

16. Delaware: $29,220

17. Washington: $28,840

18. North Dakota: $28,830

19. Pennsylvania: $28,670

20. New Mexico: $27,900

21. Montana: $26,930

22. South Dakota: $26,610

23. Kansas: $26,490

24. Michigan: $26,430

25. Alaska: $26,400

26. Ohio: $26,200

27. North Carolina: $25,760

28. West Virginia: $24,900

29. Alabama: $23,310

30. Indiana: $22,900

31. Missouri: $22,800

32. Oklahoma: $22,480

33. Louisiana: $22,250

34. South Carolina: $21,910

As a point of reference the average Middle Class annual income today is $50,000, down from $54,000 at the beginning of the Great Recession (Depression).

Hawaii, DC, and Massachusetts pay more in welfare than the average working folks earn there. Is it any wonder that they stay home rather than look for a job.

Time to un-do this type of stupidity on the part of Americans? This is crazy.

Salary of retired US Presidents $180,000 FOR LIFE

Salary of House/Senate….$174,000 FOR LIFE

This is stupid Salary of Speaker of the House ….$223,500 FOR LIFE

This is really stupid Salary of Majority and Minority Leader $193,400 FOR LIFE

Average Salary of a teacher .. $40,065

Average Salary of Soldier DEPLOYED IN AFGHANISTAN .. $38,000

Nancy Pelosi will retire as a Congress Person at $174,000 Dollars a year for LIFE; PLUS she has retired as SPEAKER at $223,500 a year; PLUS she will receive an additional $193,400 a year as Minority Leader…That is $803,700 Dollars a year for LIFE including FREE medical which is not available to working Americans. ALL PAID by US TAXPAYERS.

This is just one gross instance of abuse that hundreds of Senators and Congress take as they float in and out every year.

Why should any honest decent American work…

 

White House Orders Job Creation for Political Votes Go to Illegal Immigrants…Not Americans

Government data show that since 2000 all of the net gain in the number of working-age (16 to 65) people holding a job has gone to immigrants (legal and illegal).

Greater than 100% of jobs went to immigrants because the number of non-immigrants holding a job is negative, and the total must equal 100%.

With 58 million working-age natives not working, the Schumer-Rubio bill (S.744) and similar House measures that would substantially increase the number of foreign workers allowed in the country seem out of touch with the realities of the U.S. labor market.

The trends since 2000 challenge the argument that immigration on balance increases job opportunities for natives. Over 17 million immigrants arrived in the country in the last 14 years, yet native employment has deteriorated significantly.

The total number of working-age (16 to 65) immigrants (legal and illegal) holding a job increased 5.7 million from the first quarter of 2000 to the first quarter of 2014, while declining 127,000 for natives.

In the first quarter of 2000, there were 114.8 million working-age natives holding a job; in the first quarter of 2014 it was 114.7 million.

Because the native-born population grew significantly, but the number working actually fell, there were 17 million more working-age natives not working in the first quarter of 2014 than in 2000.

Immigrants have made gains across the labor market, including lower-skilled jobs such as maintenance, construction, and food service; middle-skilled jobs like office support and health care support; and higher-skilled jobs, including management, computers, and health care practitioners.

Immigration has fallen in recent years. But despite the economy, between 2008 and the start of 2014, 6.5 million new immigrants (legal and illegal) settled in the country and three million got jobs. Over the same time, the number of working-age natives holding a job declined 3.4 million.

If the employment rate of working-age natives in the first quarter of this year were what it was in 2007, 7.9 million more natives would have a job. If the share working were what it was in the first quarter of 2000, 12.5 million more natives would have a job today.

The supply of potential workers is enormous: 8.7 million native college graduates are not working, as are 17 million with some college, and 25.3 million with no more than a high school education.

(The Center for Immigration Studies Report)

Illegal Immigrants 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Illegal Immigrants 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Illegal Immigrants 3

 

Illegal Immigrants 4

 

 

 

 

 

 

Illegal Immigrants 5

 

New Poor in The Recovery Cannot Afford Food

Amercians Cannot Afford Food

 

 

 

 

 

Survey-wide, 21 percent of families with children responded that they have had problems affording food; 15 percent of families without children reported such problems as well.

But the numbers are worse in the U.S., where 19 percent of people without children report food struggles. For people with children, 23 percent report the same challenges. That number has grown dramatically, up 12 percent from 2007 to 2013.

These survey results end before 2014 when food prices really began powering their way higher.

Conditions will worsen. (Weiss Research)

Social Security should be $48,000 Non-Taxable (now $16,000 taxed) at age 62; $54,000 Non-Taxable (now $26,000 taxed) at age 65, and $60,000 Non-Taxable (now $36,000 taxed) at age 70 under current program. Future years for Social Security moved from 62 to 65, 65 to 70, 70 to 72. Reward those who have made a contribution.

“Thirty-six percent (36%) of American workers age 55 to 64 say they have less than $25,000 in retirement savings.” — Employee Benefit Research Institute

“Fifty-one percent (51%) of households are at risk of not having enough savings to maintain their standard of living after retirement.” — The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College

“Sixty-six percent (66%) of Americans said their top financial concern was not having enough money for retirement.” — Gallup poll

 

Senior Poverty Continually Growing Last 7 Years in The Recovery

Senior Poverty

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But more shocking is the account of the growing number of people aged 50 to 64, people who normally would be in their peak earning years, forced by economic conditions to move in with their parents!

The LA Times reports that “older people are quietly moving in with their parents at twice the rate of their younger counterparts. “For seven years through 2012, the number of Californians aged 50 to 64 who live in their parents’ homes swelled 67.6 percent to about 194,000.”

And now the Gallup organization finds that almost a quarter of families in the U.S. are struggling to afford food for their families.

That’s a higher percentage than their peers elsewhere in the developed world. (Weiss Research)

 

Job Lines in The Recovery Growing Larger

Job Line

 

 

 

 

 

The quality of jobs created the past seven years and in May of 217,000 jobs (BLS), however, is a different story. Despite this month’s gains, more than half of the jobs created were below the median wage of $22.95. Stunningly, nearly 30% of the jobs added in May went to the lowest wage bucket. In short; the low wage jobs recovery continues to march right along. (Dent Research)

In May, the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) guesstimated that 205,000 new jobs were created at companies that were not included in the employment survey. The official report showed 6,000 new jobs in construction, but this includes 36,000 construction jobs added through the birth-death adjustment, while Leisure and Hospitality officially added 39,000 positions, but 79,000 were guessed-at. Without the fantasy jobs, construction would have lost 30,000 (6,000 minus 36,000), while Leisure and Hospitality would have lost 40,000 (39,000 minus 79,000). Maybe next month, the BLS could guess that a million new jobs were created, sending the markets to the moon and creating wealth for everyone, except those who need a real, not guessed-at, paycheck. (Dent Research)

 

Student Graduates Join Job Lines in The Recovery 

Some 50% of recent college graduates say they are receiving financial help from their family, while an additional 19% say they need financial help from their spouse. This is despite the fact that half of these graduates have full-time jobs, according to the latest installment of an ongoing study, “Arizona Pathways to Life Success for University Students,” carried out by Joyce Serido, an assistant research professor at the University of Arizona, who has been tracking 2,000 people at colleges nationwide since they were freshmen in 2008.

 

Highest Paid CEOs in Public Companies Perform Worst of All: Study

Calls for one $1 million dollar Cap on total compensation per year by law for all CEOs in all public traded companies and $500 thousand dollar Cap on total compensation per year by law for all Executives in all public traded companies.

*NOTE: this is not a vote against Capitalism since all Retirement money is required by Law to be funneled into the stock and financial markets. There is no limitations regarding privately held companies.

Wave goodbye to the theory that top pay guarantees top performance. The highest-paid CEOs are the worst performers, according to academic research cited by Forbes.

Michael Cooper, University of Utah David Eccles School of Business, and two professors, one at Purdue University and the other at the University of Cambridge, studied data from 1,500 companies with the biggest market caps. They found that the more CEOs got paid, the worse their companies did. At the very top, the 5 percent of CEOs who were the highest paid turned in the worst company performance — 15 percent worse than the average. Broadening the view a bit, the top 10 percent of highest-paid CEOS turned in company performance’s that were 10 percent worse than the average.

The study finds that among the top-paid CEOs, 19 percent did mergers and those deals resulted in a negative performance of 1.38 percent during the three years.

“The returns are almost three times lower for the high-paying firms than the low-paying firms,” Cooper argues. “This wasteful spending destroys shareholder value.”

The study also reveals that the longer CEOs were in their position, the more pronounced was their firms’ poor performance. Cooper attributes that to the tendency for CEOs to appoint allies to their boards who are more likely to go along with bad decisions.

“For the high-pay CEOs, with high overconfidence and high tenure, the effects are just crazy,” he says. In fact, they return 22 percent worse in shareholder value during three years as compared with their peers.

According to the Economic Policy Institute, average CEO compensation at the largest U.S. companies in 2013 was $15.2 million including stock options exercised, up 21.7 percent since 2010.

The institute found that from 1978 to 2013, inflation-adjusted CEO compensation grew 937 percent, compared with 10.2 percent for the typical American worker. Further, the CEO-to-worker compensation ratio that was 20-to-1 in 1965 hit 295.9-to-1 by 2013. (MoneyNews)

 

US Minimum $20 Per Hour or $35,000 per Year to Meet Federal Definition of Poverty in The Recovery

Minimum Wage Around The World

 Home Prices in The Recovery Still Sinking

Home Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

Real estate is weakening in the U.S. and this “recovery” is faltering. Young people are not buying homes and the three largest banks have peaked. The housing market will never be the same. (Dent Research)

 

US Debt Result of FED Money Printing Since Gold Standard Deserted

FED Money Printing Since Gold Standard Deserted

 

 

 

 

 

FED Money Printing Since Gold Standard Deserted

FED Money Printing Since Gold Standard Deserted

 

 

 

 

 

Government Debt by Credit and Tax Payer Liability

State Credit

 

 

 

 

 

 

GDP Decline Since 1950

GDP Decline Since 1950

 

 

 

 

 

Top 12 Tax Havens for US Companies

Top 12 Tax Havens for US Companies

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US Economy Contracts First Quarter of 2014

“Overall, we remain relatively optimistic about the outlook,” said Gregory Daco, a senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics USA in New York, which now estimates GDP shrank at a 0.6 percent annualized rate in January through March. “We are not too far from the bottom, hopefully, in terms of revisions.”

It now looks like America, the world’s largest economy, contracted in January through March instead of eking out a 0.1 percent gain at an annualized rate as reported by the Commerce Department last week. (MoneyNews.com)

Employment Update First Quarter of 2014

There are 102 million Americans of working age who do not have a job. And, in 20% of all families in the United States, there is not a single person who is employed. So how can the government claim that unemployment has dropped to 6.3%. Well, the way they do it is by lying.

They just lie. And if you believe these guys, you are out of your mind.

Somebody might be able to do the Minecraft game there themselves. But we have heard that April unemployment numbers were fantastic. But if you decipher them, you find out that there were 58.9% of all working age Americans with a job in March. How many in April? 58.9%. Not anything improved. Nothing. It is all just a statistical fudge that they are blowing smoke in your face. And what they are trying to do, by the way, is to defraud you into spending money that you cannot afford to spend, or investing money on the false premise that there is a recovery underway. (Strategic Research)

Taxes

Top Income payroll tax went from 37.4% to 52.2%

Top Income tax  bracket went from 35% to 39.6% income of $400,000 and above 

Capital Gains tax went from 15% to 28%

Dividends tax went from  15% to 39.6% 

Estate tax went from 0% to 55% 

Congress: Taxes were passed  only with Democrat votes, no Republicans votes for these  taxes 

Taxes were all passed under the Affordable Care  Act…aka…Obamacare (IRS)

The way to crush the bourgeoisie (working class) is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation. - Vladimir I. Lenin

 

Teaching: The Lowest Paid Profession in US…Our teachers, students, and education is our most important asset? 

Teaching has gone from a pleasurable profession, to a terrible job. Why…because of administrators and school boards, which should have never existed.

Since the creation of the formed in 1979 and level agency in 1981 Department of Education to make Socialist all public schools, the US has dropped from 99% literacy to below 75% literacy.

Teachers are not the problem. Teachers get the blame. Teachers are the excuse for management’s failure and incompetence. Management is the cause of the problem. The problem is management, has always been management, and will always be management.

 

Depression Cycle Effect on Education Performance

80% High school graduation a record high

20% or one in five did not finish the most basic level of education

70% in 2009 the high point enrolled in college

66% in 2013 enrolled in college supports fewer young people entering college

Given the cost of college, the recent economic downturn caused many families to re-evaluate if pursuing higher education was the right choice.

Unfortunately, this is not translating into more employment.

While recent college graduates work to find jobs in their field, recent high school graduates struggle to find any employment.

Those without high school diplomas are being left behind in record numbers.

1990s over 80% of those with just a high school diploma were participating in the labor force (either employed or looking for work) the year after graduation and roughly 70% had jobs.

2000s participation in the labor force — the year after graduation — had dropped to around 78% while employment had fallen to 60% and participation dropped well below 70%.

The net effect is that unemployment the year after high school — among those with just a high school diploma — was running at 10% in the 1990s, and is currently at 23%.

For those who did not graduate high school, it is worse.

That group had a roughly 65% labor force participation rate the year after high school in the late 1990s, while their employment rate was near 50%.

But the numbers have fallen dramatically since then, and have not staged much of a recovery.

2013 only 43% of this group was either employed or actively seeking employment, with 31% holding down a job — the key is that only 43% are participating in the labor force.

Where are the rest of them…Where are the 26% of graduates not participating in the labor force and where are the 57% of those who did not receive a diploma who are not participating in the labor force?

With one in five young people not achieving a high school diploma, expect a very large social issue to erupt in the years ahead because this group will have little work experience and little ability to establish and grow their own household. (Dent Research)

Economics: Deflation in few sectors with mostly inflation coming and rapid decline in the economy last 60 days causing severe hardships

Lateral Economy: Lateral markets exist because of no growth, no prospects of growth, and no momentum to drive the economy forward for years to come, which make for a lateral economy as the search for yield with increasing risks seek Re-Positioning and Transference from the Old to the New (weighting vs. multipliers).

Economic Cycle: Depression Cycle started in 1971…the 2008-2014 period was a Trough (this is Not and never has been a Recession)

1929 or 2014

1929 or 2014

 

 

 

 

 

 

2014 40% of Americans that have a job earn less than $20,000 per year

2014 15% or 46.5 million Americans now living in poverty

2014 48 million Americans now on food stamps, the highest number since the program began in 1969

2014 Median household income for Americans have declined 5 years in a row

2014 updates (Weiss Research)

Recovery: No economic recovery, no growth, no solid evidence, never been a recovery since 1963

White House definition of “Recovery” is keeping banks solvent; nothing to the US economy or its people.

Recovery Destroying Middle Class: People 50 to 64 are moving back in with their parents. And now at twice the rate of 18 to 29 year olds moving back in with mom and dad. (Goyette Research)

Recovery Creating Largest Poor Class in History: Making poor poorer unemployment at 38% and rising, the highest in the history of the US. (BLS)

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.” – Ludwig von Mises

Economic Stimulus: War…The government spending in Afghanistan represents about 87% of the total GDP. (Davidson Research)

Climate Change: A political threat for more TAX and control over people’s lives…claim that must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases at risk of imperiling the planet…real threat more government…Solution in Private Sector with oil for living with reduced carbon emissions, NG (natural gas) to LNG (liquid natural gas) for transportation with no carbon emissions, nuclear plants for energy the cleanest form of energy known with no carbon emissions.

When ranked by their direct contribution to the greenhouse effect, the most considered are:

Compound   Formula   Contribution (%)
Water vapor and clouds     H 2O        36 – 72%  
Carbon dioxide    CO2        9 – 26%
Methane    CH 4        4 – 9%  
Ozone   O 3        3 – 7%  

The Smallest source of greenhouse gases and carbon footprints are from Coal (44%), Oil (36%), Natural Gas (20%), and all are being reduced by the Private Sector.

The Greatest source of greenhouse gases and carbon footprints are from Cows with greater emissions and more damaging than CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) from cars.

The oceans contain 3000 GT. The atpmosphere contains 720 billion tons of CO2 and humans contribute only 6 GT of CO2.

The  oceans, land and atpmosphere exchange CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) continuously so the additional load by humans is incredibly small. A small shift in the balance between oceans and air would cause a CO2 much more severe rise  than anything humans could produce.

Oceans absorb 48% of ALL carbon dioxide.

There is no single greatest source and no threat. (Independent Research UK)

The overall greatest threat of greenhouse gases and carbon footprints is the gasses given off by government.

Message to Global Warming and Greenhouse Gasses Radicals: New Little Ice Age Begins in 2014

Habibullo Abdussamatov, Russian astrophysicist, former head of space research at St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia spoke a couple of years ago to the Heartland Institute’s Fourth International Conference on Climate Change in Chicago…saying…the average annual sun activity has experienced an accelerated decrease since the 1990s.

Abdussamatov took on advocates of the theory of man-caused warming who want to diminish human use of hydrocarbon fuels. He contended, instead, that a reasonable way to combat coming cooling trends would be “to maintain economic growth in order to adapt to the upcoming new Little Ice Age in the middle of the 21st century”.

 Abdussamatov’s research amounts to a sharp rebuke of climate scientists who believe human-generated carbon dioxide is responsible for causing catastrophic global warming, issuing instead a news flash announcing “Sun Heats Earth”.

Abdussamatov published a paper in which he tracked sunspot activity going back to the 19th century to argue that total sun irradiance, or TSI, is the primary factor responsible for causing climate variations on Earth, not carbon dioxide.

Moreover, Abdussamatov’s analysis of sun activity data has led him to conclude that the Earth is entering a prolonged cooling phase, because sunspot activity is currently in a phase regarded as a “minimum”.

“Observations of the sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is not guilty’,” Abdussamatov wrote, “and as for what lies ahead in the coming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged temperature drop”.

Abdussamatov’s research is featured on page 140 of a 2009 report issued by the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, documenting more than 700 scientists who disagree that global warming is an anthropogenic, or man-made, phenomenon.

The Earth Is Not Flat…Sun Activity Determines Temperatures and NOT Global Warming and Greenhouse Gasses

Business: Higher stock price due to buying back shares to increase earnings per share, not profit performance.

Expatriates: Americans Leaving United States

Expatriates Americans Leaving United States

 

 

 

 

A skyrocketing number of Americans are deciding that they want to leave the U.S.A. for good.

Under Obama the country itself is becoming a disgrace and they no longer want to be associated with the US.

Almost 3,000 Americans officially renounced their U.S. citizenship in 2013, according to Treasury Department records, a 221% increase.

It is about to get worse, much worse. (Sovereign Daily Research)

Upward Mobility

United States Areas of Greatest Upward Mobility

United States Greatest Upward Mobility

 

 

 

 

 

Evidence that the South is still subsidizing the North since the Civil War.

 

Countries of the World with Greatest Upward Mobility

World Greatest Upward Mobility

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Executive Pay: Executive pay and bonuses in public (not private) corporations are taken from the working public whose retirement money is directed into the stock market each month, more than profit performance, not put into R&D (research and development) to create new products for higher pay jobs, leaving retirees in their 401K, 403b, IRA, etc…without a livable income and life savings.

1914 – 1918 Income: average wage rose 63 percent…War period

1918 – 2014 Income: average wage rose 0 percent…FED period

1913 - 2012 Incomes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1948-2011 Productivity Growth vs. Income Growth

1948-2011 Productivity Growth vs. Income Growth

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wages and Salary All Time Low

Wages and Salary All Time Low

 

 

 

 

 

Profits Up and Real Wages Down

Profits Up and Real Wages Down

 

 

 

 

 

Only Graduate School Keeps Up with Pay

Only Graduate School Keeps Up with Pay

 

 

 

 

 

 

Women Pay: Women are on par in pay with men. Earnings of career female workers overall are equal to the pay of men. Career choices and time away from work to have and rear children are the real reasons for pay discrepancy. As a result, the women who spend less time on careers and loosing out on advancement earn about $0.77 cents for every $1.00 dollar other men and women earn with uninterrupted careers. (Kiplinger)

Age 20 – 29 Jobs Historical Low: The labor force participation rate in 2013 for Americans in their twenties hit the lowest level recorded since 1981, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) started releasing employment data on people in the full age bracket of 20 through 29. The labor force participation rate for people ages 20 through 24, which BLS has been tracking since 1948—hit a 42-year low in 2013. (BLS)

Jobs: The jobless rate fell to 6.7% in December, but not because of more work. Instead, it was because less people were counted as being in the labor force. While 74,000 new jobs were created, over 500,000 people left the labor force because of their manager or company work environment.

  • We now have the lowest labor force participation rate in 35 years. This is not a great way to lower the rate of unemployment, and it surely is not a sign of confidence. Over the course of 2013, the economy created roughly 183,000 jobs per month, barely changed from the 182,000 jobs created each month during 2012.
  • The new 25 hour work week with new hires must find two 25 hour part-time jobs to equate to the past 40 hour work week – this is how the government is claiming a reduced unemployment number

However, from the top of the market in 2006 to December 2013, the number of construction jobs is still down by 2.3 million, which makes all the rah-rah about new home construction seem a bit shallow. We are not anywhere close to adding back the middle class jobs we lost.

The jobs report showed a solid gain in employment with the unemployment rate dropping to 7.0%, this was partly fueled by the return of government workers during the government shut down. (Dent Research)

Major companies and all others were hiring the last few months of 2013 employees on a 28 hour work week preparing for obamacare, a tax called national healthcare.

Now in 2014 these companies need more margin as they are scared of what he might further do using the IRS (Internal Revenue Service) to collect mandatory health care premiums from every citizen; so, now most all new job hires are a 25 hour work week for new employees. At present, less than 58% of working adults (38% unemployment – BLS, Bureau Labor of Statistics, it was 25% unemployment 1929-1939 without social support programs) have full-time employment.

Increasingly, over 91 million adult Americans have no jobs of the 160 million work force or 56% are now unemployed. A staggering 49% of all American citizens are on some form of welfare. (WSI Research)

Young adults, especially under 40 years of age, and anyone becoming a new hire are having to work 2-two 25 hour jobs to earn about the same income that a historical 40 hour work week provided. (WSJ)

At this year’s State of the Union address, the President made a big deal about income inequality…But what the President did not say was how his own policies were responsible for creating a larger gap between the rich and poor. (Davidson Research)

Housing: Still 30% deficient from full recovery of housing prices since 2008, no full recovery, home equity still underwater, there can be no housing recovery until the 2008 price levels are in place.

The U.S. Census Bureau’s metropolitan statistical area (MSA) residential permit report for January 2014 noted a third straight month of declines in permits, perhaps pointing to some underlying weakness in the housing market.

The statistics, released February 19, showed 937,000 privately owned housing units authorized by building permits, measured on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This represented a 5.4% decrease from the revised December rate of 991,000, though is still 1.0% higher than the January 2013 estimate of 915,000.

December’s and January’s frigid temperatures have been blamed for the sharp slowdown in permits, as well as a slowdown in hiring. The weather also chilled manufacturing output last month and has been linked to the unexpected retail sales drop in January.

The U.S. Census’ other statistics of note:

  • Single-family (SF) permits measured 602,000 units, a decrease of 1.3% from December 2013 but an increase of 2.4% from January 2013.
  • Annual Multifamily (MF) permits (5+) decreased to 309,000 units, a 13.0% drop from December’s annual rate, but were 2.7% higher than the comparable period a year ago.
  • U.S. housing starts plunged 16.0% in January to a seasonally adjusted 880,000, down from December’s total of 1,048,000.
  • Amid new supply concerns, MF starts stood at 300,000 units, a 12.8% drop from December, but still above the 2013 average of 295,000 units.
  • January completions for both SF and MF units increased by 3.0% and 9.5%, respectively. MF completions are averaging 190,000 units per month, on an annual basis.

The top 10 MSAs for MF permitting for the trailing 12 months ending January 2014 were:

Top 10 Metros

 

 

 

The top ten metros for MF permits remain the same as last month, but Miami and Denver have switched positions again. The total MF units permitted in the top ten metros (116,225) is only slightly higher than the total for the next 30 metros (113,768).

Within the current top ten metros:

  • MF permitting continues to increase in New York (46%), Houston (23%) and Dallas (17%); has leveled off in Los Angeles (5.2%) and Seattle (0.2%); and has decreased in Austin (-6.4%).
  • Atlanta and Miami have experienced a surge in MF permitting, with annual increases of 95% and 173% respectively.
  • Overbuilding in Washington, DC continues to be a concern. The MSA reported a 9.3% annual increase in MF permits of 8,715 units. With only 11,000 jobs gained between December 2012 to December 2013, the District metro is garnering less than a third of the jobs gained in 2012, 2011 and 2010 each.

Rent or Buy

Interactive Map

Interactive Map

 

 

 

 

The most expensive place to rent is Honolulu with an average monthly rent of $2,862. The least expensive place to rent is Montgomery County Arkansas with an average monthly rent of $699.

The San Francisco Bay Area’s six counties (Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, Santa Clara and San Mateo) all are the nation’s top 10 most expensive places to rent, averaging more than $2,400 a month.

Data also shows that a third of Americans live in regions where average rents are unaffordable for median income earners.

The least expensive place to buy a home is Washington County Mississippi with an average mortgage of $217 a month and a median sales price of $42,000. The most expensive place to buy a home is San Francisco with an average home mortgage of $4,599 and a median sales price of $890,500. (RealtyTrac)

Charity: Government (Forced Charity) has been a dismal failure since 1963, does not work, never has worked, never will work, purpose only to buy votes of the poor and penalize the population; compared to, Private (Volunteer Charity) which does everything better, more efficient, more honest, without an ulterior purpose and benefits the entire population and nation.

Social Security: Social Security, a Formal TRUST Fund established by the Social Security Act of 1935 on August 14, is to provide a monthly income for all American Retirees. When Social Security was created, one of the fundamental promises by Congress and President (FDR) was that benefits would Never Be TAXED. Ronald Reagan (R) and Democrat Congress (D) including still in office Vice-President Joe Biden (D) and Senator John McCain (R), in the Tax Recovery Act of 1984 Taxed Social Security and Retirement Income Dividends of all American Retirees.

The purpose of Social Security and the American people have been betrayed by Presidents and Congresses; and, the TAXATION of Social Security has become a FUTURE TAX on the Poor, Young Adults, and Working Middle Class. Efforts to Repeal the TAX on Social Security has been Defeated year after year. The TAX on Social Security Income was Increased by the Clinton Administration on the Future of the Poor, Young Adults, and Working Middle Class. TAXING Social Security has created a 66%-104% Increase in the TAX Bill for all American Retirees. (DMN)

Ask your Representatives and Incumbents in office before you VOTE about HR 3894 The Senior Citizens Tax Elimination Act to Repeal the Social Security TAX.

Social Security Solution: Federal law making Social Security the only legal and permitted source of government retirement for ALL Americans. This would immediately stop and solve the bankruptcy shortages of state, city and county government retirement programs allowing double or triple dipping on the TAX PAYER. State, City, and County retirement programs would be illegal and cease immediately. Then ALL Americans including Presidents, Congressional members, Congressional staffs, military, and any others would be permitted to only draw Social Security in addition to any ‘Private’ self financed retirement.

Medicare: Medicare was established July 30,1965 as a Supplemental Insurance program for all American Retirees.

National Health Care Welfare: Government (Forced National Health System) does not work in any country of the world effectively, does not work efficiently, mandates an extremely higher cost that a family cannot afford to pay out of their own pock with or without Insurance, decreases money for medical research, gives government decision-making role as to whether you will be permitted to live or die based on political considerations while excluding government officials, does not work fairly to the poor and penalizes the population with an unnecessary TAX; compared to, Private (County Owned Hospitals as prior to 1963 allowing communities to take care of their own) which did everything better as a medical system, more efficient with an extremely lower cost that a family could afford to pay out of their own pock without the need for Insurance, increases money for medical research through private donations and private grants (especially today since individuals and business are more solvent than government), makes illegal government decision-making role as to whether you will be permitted to live or die period, more honest, without the need for Insurance, without an ulterior purpose and benefits the entire population and nation without an unnecessary TAX and added burden on the poor.

Goethe, the German philosopher, said at one point that: “None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free”.

The world is witnessing the global collapse of the 20th century’s socialist experiment. (EWR)

 

United States

Economic Cycles (Prosperity – Recession – Depression – Recovery) and Market Forecasts (1900 – 2054)

Prosperity cycle ↑↑

Defined: 3% Unemployment or less; Positive Balance Sheets to Peak GDP and GNP

1918 (Industrial Expansion) – 1924

1945 (Infrastructure Growth) – 1963 (22 November 1963 Peak and Height of US as World Power)

2023 – 2036 (tfg forecast)

 

Recession Cycle ↓

Defined: 5% – 9% Unemployment; Declining GDP and GNP

1924 (Currency Bubble) – 1929

1963 (22 November – Welfare & War) – 1971

2036 – 2054 (tfg forecast)

 

Depression Cycle ↓↓

Defined: 10% Unemployment and greater; Negative GDP and GNP

1900 (Currency Collapse) – 1914

1929 (Engineered Transfer of Wealth) – 1942

1971 (August 15 Left Gold Standard) – 2018 (tfg forecast)

Depression Cycle Economics

Depression Cycle Economics

 

 

 

 

 

 

Depression Cycle National Debt

National Debt

 

 

 

 

 

Depression Cycle Earnings Per Share in Stock Market (S&P 500)

Earnings Per Share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Depression Cycle Economic Lack of Growth

Economic Lack of Growth 2013

 

 

 

 

 

Depression Cycle Interest Rates

Interest Rate Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recovery Cycle ↑

Defined: 10% – 5% Unemployment; Sustaining Rise GDP and GNP

1914 (WW I) – 1918

1942 (WW II) – 1945

2018 – 2023 (tfg forecast)

 

*(tfg forecast) “Forecast is an opinion predict of the future that is impossible to predict…Caveat Emptor.” – Thomas Fletcher Grooms

 

Capitalism

Average Earned Income by Capitalist Proving Jobs for 90% of Population

Average Earned Income

 

 

 

 

 

 

“Only the Wealthy Capitalists can afford to be Socialists.” – Thomas Fletcher Grooms

 

Reason for Saving and Staying Out of Debt

Reason for Saving and Staying Out of Debt

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Washington

Roughly 15 cents of every dollar taxed at the Federal level ends up in the pocket of someone living within 50 miles of Washington D.C.

10 of the richest 15 counties in the United States surround our nation’s capital.

Congress 6% Approval Rating (Dent Research)

Obama 9% Approval Rating (Dent Research)

Post Office ↓ $5 billion Loss (2013) Post Office is a Public Service and Security for Private communications; Post Office is Not a Profit Center and was never meant to be.

Trust In 1958, 73% Americans trusted government; in 2014, 19% Americans trust government. (EWR Research)

Inflation

↑ 9.0% (2013 BLS; CPI False Indicator)

Dwindling Pay with Price Inflation

1929-1939 First Great Depression

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Putting a drag on the consumer-oriented economy is the fact that Americans earn less today than they have in years. The median annual household income was $51,404 in February, according to a March report by Sentier Research. In June 2009 — it was $54,437. Even in January 2000 — more than 13 years ago — the figure stood at $56,101.

The process of sequestration in Washington, D.C. and the Central Banks around the world is confiscation of bank depositors’ money.

For instance, $5,000 in cash squirreled away in a bank in 1913, when the Federal Reserve was created, is now worth only 4.37 cents.

Put another way, it would take $114,396.56 of today’s money to buy what $5,000 would have bought in 1913.

Want more recent examples? Consider the following …

It now takes $6,210.11 to buy what $5,000 bought just 10 years ago … $29,161.44 to buy what $5,000 bought in 1970 … $47,047.46 to buy what $5,000 bought in 1950.

Even a McDonald’s Big Mac, which cost a mere 57 cents in 1959, now costs about $4.37, an increase of 665%, for an average annual increase of just over 12% per year.

Consumer Inflation

 

↑ 80% of American citizens are barely staying afloat. (Sovereign Society)

Inflation

Highlights from The Wall Street Journal on March 19, 1959

Why Big Spending, Extravagance and Waste?

“Inflation is our greatest enemy…a narcotic. It soothes and exhilarates while doing its deadly work.”

“Already inflation has reduced our dollar to half of its purchasing power. It is the killer rampant in our midst, threatening to destroy us as it has other countries whose rulers thought they could have a little bit of controlled spending and inflation; a little cheapening of their money. THEN IT WAS TOO LATE…”

“Some people say we need deficit spending by our government for prosperity and growth. But they forget that the means can destroy the end.”

“No greater tragedy, short of war…” said William McChesney Martin, Jr., Chairman, Federal Reserve System, “…could befall the free world than to have our country surrender to the easy delusion that a little inflation, year after year, is either inevitable or tolerable … for that way lies ultimate economic chaos.”

“Excessive inflation in the long run destroys the will to work and the will to save…” argued Senator J. W. Fulbright, “…which are the foundations of our economic system. Inflation is a deadly enemy of a free capitalistic system.”

“If you do get mounting inflation…” noted President Ike Eisenhower, “…our whole scheme of economy would just go out of the window.”

“Men in government — in Congress — are plain human beings. They want to keep their jobs as we all do. But what has been happening to these men? They have been put on the spot. On the one side, they have been entrusted with the job of protecting your interest, your money.”

“On the other side, they are being forced by every conceivable kind of pressure group to spend, spend, spend … for every special interest and selfish program except the basic protection of your money and your rights as a taxpayer.”

“Yet the bill comes to you either in the form of higher taxes or deficit financing (spending money we do not have) or both.” 

“When this happens … it is because you have not taken the trouble to tell them that you have had enough … that your pocketbook will not stand any further whittling away of the dollar.”

“Remember: Lawmakers are human. They want to do what is right. But if you do not tell them what you want, the blame is on you — they will continue to play politics with your money…”

What Now? 

Today, although official measures of inflation may look tame, highly flammable inflationary material lies nearly everywhere on the planet.

We have the lowest interest rates for the longest period in modern history, a known prelude to inflation.

We have the most reckless money printing since Weimar Germany, another powerful inflationary force.

We have serious threats to the world’s largest energy supplies, another potential driver of inflation.

And we see the first signs of possible currency wars — competitive devaluations by countries in a race to the bottom.

GDP Economy

↓ - 1.0% Y (2013 Market, shrinking) vs. ↑ 1.0% Y (2013 Commerce Department); ↑ 1.0% Y – Revised ↓ - 1.0% Y (2012)

1948-2012 Nominal GDP

1948-2012 Nominal GDP

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Public & Private Debt

↑ 345% to ↑ 400% (total country debt-to-GDP – CBO)

$222 Trillion to ↑ $234.3 Trillion (CBO – Congressional Budget Office)

GDP↓ $14.6 T (Gross Domestic Product : economy produced goods and services)

GDP Rank ↓ US second largest economy in world 2010 (Peterson Institute and University of Pennsylvania)

GDP ↑ 1.0% Reported for 2012 – Revised to ↓ 1.0% (SAAR rate)

Per Capita Sovereign Debt Per Person ↑ $49,703 to ↑ $52,173

Government Open Debt ↑ $16 Trillion

Government Closed Debt ↑ $66 Trillion (Kleiner Perkins) to ↑ $88.800 Trillion

Government Spent Trust Fund for Social Security and Medicare Debt Spent from TRUST Fund ↑ $140.6 Trillion…Social Security and Medicare is NOT Welfare or an Entitlement

Consumer Debt↓ $38 Trillion = $12.8 T Household Debt + $25.2 T Leveraged Debt

Families Broke ↑ 43%  (MSN Money)

Americans in Poverty ↑ 46.7 million to ↑ 49.7 million (1 in 6 people in America living in poverty) (Census Bureau)

Consumer National Credit Card Balance ↑ $15,422

Consumer National Average Household Debt ↑ $12.8 T

National Debt ↑ 100% (3 August 2011) to ↑ 104.8% (debt-to-GDP)

National Debt & Budget Accounting Statementhttp://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/EW5IdwltaAc?rel=0

National Debt ↑ $14.5 T On-Balance Sheet and ↑ $146.1 T Off-Balance Sheet (government) TOTAL ↑ $222.6 T (market and Laurence Kotlikoff, Council of Economic Advisors) (T = trillion or 1,000,000,000,000)

TAX Liability

Corporate Tax ↑ 35% (world’s highest corporate taxes)

Socialist Country Officially March 23, 2010 ↓ National Health Care – 23 March 2010 – 10:15a CST – 2,700 page Tax Bill passed at 3:00 AM Vote in Congress

Marx Dollars

 

 

 

 

 

 

Death of Capitalism by Executive Order ↑ 80.2% Americans favored a free market economic system of capitalism (2009) to ↓ 74.5% (2010) to ↓ 59.0% (2011) to ↓ 30.0% (2012) (Globescan Research)

Days Start Time To Open A Business ↑ 18% 433 days Problems: Dodd-Frank Act, Patient “Protection” and “Affordable” Care Act, decline of US institutions, costs imposed by organized crime, effective political system, K-12 education system, tax code, US ranking 7th behind New Zealand, Australia, Singapore, Canada, Hong Kong, United Kingdom (2013 June 8 Wall Street Journal C1-2).

American Millionaires 5.9 million, 1.84% population, 4 out of 10 millionaires live in US (BCG – Boston Consulting Group)

Americans on Welfare ↑ 97 million 32.98% population 2009 to ↑ 107 million 33.43% population 2012

Americans Living on $2.00 a Day ↑ 1.5 million people

Poverty Line for American Family ↑ $24,000 per year (Washington)

Americans Living Below Poverty Line ↑ 50% (Washington)

Poor Defined Below Income for American Family ↑ $35,000 per year (Washington)

Earned Paid Savings into National Trust Fund (not an entitlement or welfare)

Social Security

Historical Social Security COLAs (Cost-of-Living Adjustments)
Year Increase
2014 1.5%
2013 1.7%
2012 3.6%
2011 0.0%
2010 0.0%
2009 5.8%
2008 2.3%
2007 3.3%
2006 4.1%
2005 2.7%
2004 2.1%
2003 1.4%
2002 2.6%
2001 3.5%
2000 2.5%
Average 2.47%

 

Medical Insurance TAX

Health Care Costs

 

 

 

 

 

Entitlement

ObamaCare TAX

ObamaCare

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

“Affordable” Care Insurance Act (tax on poor) (hardest on under 40 adults) ($8 billion tax) (WSJ)

7-seven out of every 8-eight jobs created in the U.S. since the passage of the “Affordable Care Act” has been a part-time position with fewer than 30 hours per week. (WSJ)

Wall Street Journal by Syracuse Professor Carl Schramm, “How Obamacare Rips off the ‘Young Healthies,’” the lowest users of health care, the least costly to cover, are 18-26 year olds. “Yet the group faces extraordinarily high Obamacare rates.”

It is just another wealth redistribution scheme:

“A Manhattan Institute analysis of Health and Human Services numbers notes that a 27-year-old male will pay 99% higher premiums under Obamacare than he would under previously prevailing market rates. One reason is that the law now limits insurers to charging the sickest seniors no more than three times the amount they charge their youngest customers. Given that 64-year-olds use on average six times as much health care as 19-year-olds, the Affordable Care Act forces young people to pay considerably more than the cost of their own care.” (Wall Street Journal)

So the young are bequeathed a debt burden they will struggle under their entire lives. (Wall Street Journal)

Americans on Food Stamps ↑ 14.2 to ↑ 48.0 to ↑ 52.0 million people or 1 in 6 or 16% population under Barack Obama; ↑ 14.7 million people under George Bush

1975-2012 Food Stamps Recipients

1975-2012 Food Stamps Recipients

 

 

 

 

 

 

1965-2010 Entitlement Spending

1965-2010 Entitlement Spending

 

 

 

 

 

 

Welfare Social Benefits as to Disposable Income 

Welfare Social Benefits 2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

American Productivity Employee Make-up ↑ 50% Government – ↓ 38% Services –  ↓ 9.75% Small Business –  ↓ 2.0%  Manufacturing –  ↓ 0.50% Agriculture (government 500 employees = Small Business 1984) (history and market 50 employees = Small Business)

American Average Net Worth ↓ $129,582 to $93,150 2009 in 2012 (LA Times)

Productivity ↓ 0.5% (output per hour worked)

Savings ↓ minus 4.5% to ↓ minus 3.9% (personal – historical saving 20% – 50%) (10-20-70 Rule)

Wages Savings Consumption Decline 2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer Debt ↑8.6% rate; ↑ 5.6% Y/Y

American Families ↑43.0% Broke (MSN Money)

Median Family Net Worth ↓ 50.0% (2009-2012) and ↓ 40.0% (2005-2008)

Median Household Income ↓ 8.9% (1999-2013)

Consumer Confidence ↓ 94.4 points to ↓ 70.2 to ↓ 69.2 to ↓ 64.9 to ↓ 62.0 to ↓ 60.6 to ↓ 58.6 (90 indicates healthy economy – scale 1-150)

Consumer Sentiment ↓ 75.7 to ↑ 76.4 to ↓ 74.1 to ↓ 72.0 to ↑ 79.2 to ↓ 78.3 to ↑ 83.1 points to ↓ 74.5 to ↓ 72.9 to ↓ 71.3 (Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan)

Consumer Spending ↑0.8% + ↓ 0.3% + ↑0.3% + ↓ 3.6% rate; ↑ 4.1% to ↓ 1.8% to ↓ 1.5% to ↓ 5.1% Y/Y (contracting)

Economy Spending Make-up ↑ 40% Government – ↔ 15% Industry – ↓ 45% Consumer

Consumer Price Index CPI ↑ 2.3% + ↑ 2.0% to ↓ 2.7% + ↑ 0.6%; ↑ 4.7% to ↓ 1.7% to ↓ 1.4% to ↑ 5.3% Y/Y (government) ↑ 12.2% to ↑ 13.6% to ↑ 14.2% (market)

Small Business Confidence ↓ 0.2 points to ↓ 91.2 (90 indicates healthy economy – scale 1-150)

Income↓1.7% + ↓0.2% + ↓ 8.8% + ↓ 0.3% + ↓ 0.7%; ↑ 3.2% to ↓1.7% to ↓10.5% to ↓10.8% to ↓11.5% Y/Y (government – inflation adjusted wages – declining); ↓ 2.5%; ↓ 26.5% to ↓ 27.2% Y/Y (market – non-farm – dropping); ↓ 11.5% to ↓ 13.5% Y/Y (market – farm – dropping)

Income National Average $56,080 (2000), $51,017 (2013), $50,200 (2014)

Income Poverty Level ↔ $35,000.00 (government definition for family of 4 and establishes poverty income base for Minimum Wage and Social Security Income)

Minimum Wage

Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) and Fair Minimum Wage Act of 2007 federal minimum wage ↑ $5.15 per hour to ↑ $5.85 per hour (July 24, 2007) to ↑  $6.55 per hour (July 24, 2008) to ↑ $7.25 per hour (July 24, 2009)

↑ $17.50 to ↑ $20.00 per hour (what should be if based on 2013 income poverty level defined by Washington)

Many states also have minimum wage laws. Where an employee is subject to both the state and federal minimum wage laws, the employee is entitled to the higher of the two minimum wages.

Various minimum wage exceptions apply under specific circumstances to workers with disabilities, full-time students, youth under age 20 in their first 90 consecutive calendar days of employment, tipped employees and student-learners.

Government Poverty Tax ↑ 46.2 million (below government defined poverty threshold) ↔ $2.28 trillion (tax collected for poverty = 63% for government poverty operations + 37% for poverty recipients) = $197,140 (per year for a family of four)

Disposable Income↑ 0.4% + ↓0.7%; ↑ 0.6% to ↓ – 0.1% Y/Y (DPI – disposable personal income) (government)

1956-2056 Spending Wave

1956-2056 Spending Wave

 

 

 

 

 

 

Salaries and Income

2000-2014 Employee Compensation as Percent of GDP

2000-2014 Employee Compensation as Percent of GDP

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Payroll to Population Employment Rate (P2P)

The U.S. Payroll to Population employment rate (P2P)

 

 

 

 

Wealth↓30.0% – 50.0% (over last 7 years) (deflation – medium family income less than in 1963 – 49 years ago)

1800-2013 Drop in Dollar Value

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cost of Children

It takes around $250,000 for parents to rear the average child to age 18, and that does not include any future support or college.

 

Education

Enrollment U.S. college enrollment dropped in 2012 for the first time since 2006.

Education World Rank ↓14th (Students Rank : Program for International Student Assessment)

Education Math & Science World Rank ↓ 23rd (Students Rank : Program for International Student Assessment)

Education Math World Rank ↓ 25th to ↓ 31st (2013)

Education Science World Rank ↓ 20th to 24th (2013)

Education Reading World Rank ↓ 11th to 21st (2013)

These rankings with 65 countries would have been much worse if the results of private schools were not included to pull up the scores.

“Difference, between a Learned person, and an Educated person, is an educated person asks questions.” – Thomas Fletcher Grooms

“A Teacher is the second highest paid person in many countries; but not, in the US as it only is lip service.” – Thomas Fletcher Grooms

“To have Educated students, you require teachers that know something, a great deal, about their subject and learning at a depth beyond titles, administrators, and government.” – Thomas Fletcher Grooms

“If an educational institution were smart, allow teachers to teach, and remove administrators and government from the classroom.” – Thomas Fletcher Grooms

Education SAT Scores ↓ 43% Pass Rate – ↑ 57% Fail Rate – 2012 (WSJ Wall Street Journal)

Education SAT Scores↓ 33 Points Drop in Scores Nationally – 2012 (WSJ Wall Street Journal)

Education ACT Scores↓ 25%Pass Rate – ↑ 75% Fail Rate – 2012 (WSJ Wall Street Journal)

Education SAT and ACT Test Takers ↑ 28% Not Literate (could not speak or write English – WSJ Wall Street Journal)

Education Attend College ↓ 44% High School Graduates – 2012 (WSJ Wall Street Journal)

Education Graduate College ↓ 21% Graduate in Six Years – 2012 (WSJ Wall Street Journal)

Education Literacy ↑ 99% to ↓ 75% (since creation of Department of Education in 1980)

Student Debt and Loans (“Do not borrow money for a degree – work your way through school and graduate debt-free.” – Thomas Fletcher Grooms)

↑ $1 trillion (bubble and still growing rapidly)

↑ $315 billion of all student loans are held by people still in school, or are in some other way deferred, meaning the repayment process has not begun.

↑ $685 billion remaining, $180 billion are in forbearance or default; or, 26% of
the total value of loans outstanding that are currently in the repayment
period.

↑ 600,000 federal student loan borrowers defaulted (New York Times)

↑ 463 percent increase in outstanding federal student loan debt making student loans for college more expensive. In fact, in constant dollars the cost of college tuition has more than doubled.

Education vs. Income ↓ 14.4% (income drop for college students 2001-2012) and ↓ 11.2% (income drop for college graduates 2001-2012)

No.1 Problem Interference. In the 20th century, socialism got a death grip on education and indoctrinated the classroom, which is the main reason millions of adults today cannot read, write, or perform simple arithmetic; or, think, much less think critically in lieu of accepting everything they read, hear, or told. Who suffers, the children and students. – Thomas Fletcher Grooms

No.2 Problem Pay of Teachers. The people who do the work and make the highest contribution should be paid the most. Teachers should be the highest paid persons in any educational system, school, or educational organization; next highest the Principals; lastly then the lowest in pay Superintendents or Presidents, and administrators, which are not necessary if you correct the first three; thus, in colleges and universities the separation is even greater. Who suffers, the children and students. – Thomas Fletcher Grooms

No.3 Problem Waste of Money. Accreditation ensures nothing. Tests ensure nothing. School Boards ensure nothing. Governments ensure nothing. Politicians ensure nothing. Only Teachers ensure learning. Paper work is created to keep Superintendents, Presidents, and administrators busy and employed. Paper and administration placed above teachers in the organizational structure is an insane burden on teachers and disrupts learning in the classroom, when teachers should, who are closes to the needs, be at the top of the educational system, school, or
educational organization chart. Who suffers, the children and students. – Thomas Fletcher Grooms

No.4 Problem School Boards. School Boards contribute nothing, not necessary, and are a political hindrance of ignorance. Schools should not raise children, but educate them, which is the sole job of the teacher. Who suffers, the children and students. – Thomas Fletcher Grooms

No.5 Problem Hunger. Hunger in the belly, which limits learning;
Hunger in the mind to make a better life; Hunger of the poor Teacher for
learned students; So in every public school, feed every student at tax payer
expense breakfast and lunch; teach to the best and brightest while removing
disruptions and problems from the classroom allowing to stay only those that
want to learn; provide teachers with the top pay of all professionals and
provide an abundance of money for learning supplies. Who
suffers, the children and students. – Thomas Fletcher Grooms

“Only the Wealthy Capitalists can afford to be Socialists.” – Thomas Fletcher Grooms

 

Employment

Employed 95% Harvard Graduates

Employed 75% Ivy League Schools and Top Tier Schools

Employed 50% Most Colleges and Universities

Employed 60% Default on Student Loans Nationally

Jobs

Job Market ↓ 49% Lower Wage Market Jobs (Temps) and ↑ 51% Government Jobs (100% Job Growth)

Jobs ↓ 130 million in 2000 to ↔ 130 million in 2013 (BLS and SGS)

Birth Death Adjustment (where the government guesses at jobs) was actually negative by 15,000, implying that the bureaucrats are correcting some of the past mistakes. Without this adjustment, the report would have shown 220,000 jobs created. Construction was up by 17,000, but was actually corrected lower by 16,000, through the birth/death adjustment. (Dent Research)

Life Expectancy

Despite the fact that the U.S. spends incomparably more than anyone else on health care, it ranks 51st in the CIA’s table of world life expectancy.

Costa Rica enjoys higher life expectancy than the U.S. for both men and women. Yet, per capita medical outlays in Costa Rica are just $1,197, annually. Even before Obamacare, U.S. health-care costs were $8,233 per capita almost 7 times higher than in Costa Rica, where private health insurance costs $60 to $130 per month.

According to the IRS, it will cost a family of four a minimum of $20,000 a year for health insurance — $1,667 per month — not to mention the additional costs imposed by a minimum of 20 new taxes enacted by Obamacare. (Forbes)

Forbes reports that 74.1% of American adults are medically overweight or obese.

 

Work Force ↑ 130,000,000  to ↑ 160,000,000 (Bureau of Labor Statistics – BLS)

Unions ↑ 48% (1952) to ↓ 22% (1993) to ↓ 11% (2013)

2000-2014 Employment Is Part-time as U.S. Payrolls 1.5 million Jobs Short

2000-2014 Employment Is Part-time as U.S. Payrolls 1.5 million Jobs Short

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unemployed Work Force ↑ 55.5% (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Labor Department reports unemployment rate drops to 7.3 percent due to fewer Americans looking for work. (Challenger, Gray & Christmas)

Employers have announced 347,095 job losses for 2013 (no gain in American jobs), close to the 352,185 that were seen in the first eight months of last year. (Challenger, Gray & Christmas)

Gallup Poll Unemployment Report

Gallup Poll Unemployment Report

 

 

 

 

 

 

Men Highest Unemployed Group

Unemployment Story Unemployment Fell To 7.5%, with 165,000 Jobs Created…which is odd. The labor force grew by 200,000 people, and the economy created 165,000 jobs. That does not add up to a decline in unemployment. (Dent Research)

June 2013, let’s dig a little deeper into the unemployment numbers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) guessed that uncounted small businesses created 205,000 new jobs in this latest report. That means the actual count of jobs was -30,000 (175,000 reported less 205,000 guesstimated). We just do not get it. Why does this number not attract more attention? With all the regulatory issues facing small businesses, along with the impending Affordable Care Act requirements, there is no question that the rate of small business creation has fallen off a cliff. The Census Bureau recently confirmed this reality, yet the BLS assumes almost a quarter of a million new jobs in one month from uncounted startups, and everyone goes along with it? (Dent Research)

May 2013, the BLS assumed 193,000 new jobs, which means, in the last two months, they have assumed 398,000 new jobs from small businesses and reported 317,000 new jobs overall. (Dent Research)

Out of Work Males

Out of Work Males

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unemployment More People Quitting Jobs Story ↑ 7.2 % or 2.25 million More Americans are quit their jobs due to declining income and toxic work environments and toxic managers who make their employees miserable, ↓ 3% or 3.75 million new minimum pay jobs, hiring is falling. (Washington: Associated Press 12 June 2013)

Appears it is not even worth getting up to go to work for the amount of pay any longer – unless you are a government employee.

Why Work ? The Associated Press reports that Dorothy Dugger, a California Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) employee, earned more than $330,000 last year… despite not working one day for the public agency last year. The AP reports…

Dorothy Dugger, 57, cashed in nearly 80 weeks of unused vacation time, drawing paychecks and full benefits. During that period, she earned nearly two extra months of vacation, received management bonuses and medical insurance, and boosted her pension benefits by more than $1,000 a month for life.

When she left BART’s payroll in December, she began to draw an annual pension of $181,000, according to the newspaper.

Dugger said she was entitled to the money because she earned more than 3,100 hours of unused vacation time during two decades with the light-rail agency.

“It was time I earned my whole career at BART,” she said. “It’s a cost of having the option” to save the vacation until the end of a career, she said.

The value of her unused vacation days soared after she took the top job in 2007 and received a raise of nearly $100,000 a year because the unused time-off was paid at her final, highest pay rate — not her rate when the time was accrued, records show.

Death Premature ↑ Life expectancy declining due to living conditions in economy with the deepest increase occurring in the group of Americans with no college degree. (Strategic Investment Research)

Employed Work Force ↓ 59.5% to ↓ 37.5%

Full-Time Employment ↓ 50.0% of All New Jobs (effect of ObamaCare)

Full-Time Employment 2013

 

 

 

 

7-seven out of every 8-eight jobs created in the U.S. since the passage of the “Affordable Care Act” has been a part-time position with fewer than 30 hours per week. (WSJ)

Part-Time Employment (Temps) ↑ 150.0% of All New Jobs (effect of ObamaCare)

American Hourly Employees ↓ 58.5% New Jobs 2009 to 2012 Pay $7.69 – %13.83 per Hour (National Employment Law Project)

Jobs Added 2013  ↓ 169K jobs added, the vast majority, some 144K or 85%, consisted of the lowest paying jobs possible. (MarketWatch and Zero Hedge)

Hours Worked ↑ 3.2% to ↓ 42% or 28 Hour Work Week (hours worked – effect of ObamaCare)

Labor force participation rate fell to ↓ 63.2%, the lowest level since 1978. Employment gains for 2013 were lowered by a combined 74,000. (Labor Department)

Number of new jobs created slashed to ↓ 104,000 from 169,000 and government increased employment by 17,000 as average hourly wages rose 5 cents to $24.05, while the average national workweek edged up 0.1 hour to ↑ 34.5 hours. Federal workers and postal workers to get 1% salary increases, even though both
organizations are operating with huge deficits. (Labor Department)

American Exempt Employees ↓ 41.5% New Jobs 2009 to 2012 Pay Less Than $42,000 Annually (National Employment Law Project)

Work Force ↑ 160,000,000

Right to Work States

 

 

 

 

 

 

Work Force Employed by Government ↑ 72,000,000 or 40%

Non-Farm Payrolls ↑ 120,000 to ↓ 69,000 (contracting)

Employees Overseas ↑ 1.5% (expanding)

Unemployment Rate Level U-3 8.1% to ↑ 8.2% to ↑ 8.3% to ↑ 8.8% to ↑ 14.4% (BLS – Bureau Labor Statistics) (7.8% government fiction) (government unemployment insurance claims) (U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force or official government reported unemployment rate)

Unemployment Rate Level U-6 ↑ 22.8% to ↑ 22.9% to ↑ 41.0% to ↑63.5% (Department of Labor); ↑ 55.5% to ↑55.6% rate to ↑ 78.1% ? (market) (U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force)

Unemployment Rate

Unemployment 16-19 Years ↑ 50.1% (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Jobless Removed from Unemployment Calculations 16-54 Years ↑ 74% (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Layoffs of Employees ↑ 10.5% (deflation)

Farms ↑ 7 million (1929) to 2.2 million (2013) (Department of Agriculture)

 

Homes

Mortgage Originations Drop

Mortgage Originations Drop

 

 

 

 

 

Household Net Worth

Household Net Worth 2013

 

 

 

 

 

Decline Home Ownership

Home Prices0.8% + 0.1%; 55.8% to ↓ 55.9% Y/Y (deflation)

Home Prices Since 2008 Collapse 50.0% to 40.0% to 33.3% Full Recovery Since 2008 Does Not Exist

Home Ownership 2013

 

 

 

Construction Spending ↓ 1.1% + ↓ 0.9%  + ↓ 0.6% rate + ↓ 0.3%; ↑ 5.8% to ↓ 4.9% to ↓ 5.5% to ↓ 5.8% Y/Y (contracting)

Homes in Foreclosure ↑ 3.7 m (held in banking system)

Home Building Permits ↑ 4.5% + 7.0% + ↑7.9% + ↓ 3.7% + ↑ 6.8% rate + ↓ 1.0%; ↓ 23.7% to ↓ 16.7% to ↑ 24.6% to ↓ 20.9% to ↓ 14.1% to ↓ 15.1% Y/Y (contracting)

Housing Starts ↓ 5.8% + ↓4.8% + ↑ 6.9% + ↓4.8% + ↓1.1% + ↓ 1.0% rate + ↓ 8.5% + ↓ 16.5% (↑ 15.0% + ↑ 12.1% government fiction); ↑ 10.3% to ↓ 5.5% to ↑ 1.4% to ↓ – 3.4% to ↓ – 4.5% to ↓ – 5.5% to – 14.0% to – 40.1% Y/Y (contracting)

New Home Sales ↓ 1.6% to ↓ 7.1% to ↑ 5.9% to ↑ 7.6% rate to ↓ 8.4% + ↓ 0.3% + ↓ 2.6% + ↓ 4.3% + ↓ 7.3% rate; ↑ 7.5% to ↑ 13.3% to ↑ 19.8% to ↓ 11.4% to ↓ 11.1% to ↓ 8.5% to ↓ 12.8% to ↓ 20.1% Y/Y

New Home Sales

 

 

 

 

 

 

Existing Home Sales ↓ 2.6% + ↓1.5% + ↓ 5.4% + ↓ 1.4% + ↓ 5.4% + ↑ 2.3% + ↑ 7.8% + ↓ 1.7% + ↓ 1.0% + ↓ 4.3% rate; ↑ 5.2% to ↑ 3.7% to ↓1.7% to ↓ 3.1% to ↓2.3% to ↔ 0.0% to ↑ 7.8% to ↓ – 6.1% to ↓ – 7.1% to ↓ – 11.4% Y/Y

Single Family Home Sales ↓ 7.1% + ↓ 8.4% + ↑ 1.5% + ↓ 7.3%; ↓16.1% Y/Y

Driving Home Sales↑ Foreign Buyers with Cash Deals and Hedge Funds (Sovereign Individual)

Not Driving Home Sales ↓Improving Employment + ↓ Rising Wages + ↓ Income in America effectively extinct (Sovereign Individual)

Retail Sales ↑ 0.8% + ↓ 0.1% rate + ↓ 0.2% + ↓ 0.4% rate + ↓ 0.5% + ↓0.5% rate + ↑0.8% + ↑0.9%; ↑ 6.4% to ↓ 6.2% to ↓ 5.8% to ↓ 6.3% to ↓ 6.8% to ↓ 6.0% to ↓ 5.1% Y/Y

1995-2014 Sales Slowing

1995-2014 Sales Slowing

 

 

 

 

Consumer Prices ↑ 0.4% + ↑ 0.2% + ↑ 0.6% rate; ↑ 2.9% to ↑ 3.1% to ↑ 3.7% Y/Y

Consumer Credit↑ Danger Sign – ↑ 0.7%; ↑ 5.5% Y/Y

CPI Price Inflation 6.6% + ↑ 0.6% (Consumer Price Index – government); ↑ 20.7% to ↑ 21.3% (market) (inflation – hidden tax)

Producer Prices↑ 0.4% + ↑ 0.3% + ↑ 1.7% + ↑ 1.1% + ↓ 0.2% rate; ↑ 3.3% to ↑ 3.6% to ↑ 5.3% to ↑ 6.4% to ↓ 6.1% Y/Y

Import Prices↑ 1.3% + ↑ 0.7% rate; ↑ 3.4% to ↑ 4.1% Y/Y

ISM Manufacturing↓ 53.5 to ↓ 49.7 to ↓ 45.9 to ↑ 47.8 to ↑ 49.5 to ↑ 50.7 (below 50 contracting)

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 49.6 to 45.0 to ↑ 46.4 to ↑ 54.7 to ↑ 56.1 (below 50 contracting)

Industrial Production ↓ 1.2% + ↑ 0.4% + ↓ 1.1% + ↑ 0.6% + ↑ 1.2%; ↑ 4.2% to ↑ 3.1% to ↑ 3.7% to ↑ 4.9% Y/Y

Capacity Utilization↓ 0.1 + ↑ 0.2 + ↑ 0.45+ ↓1.0 points to 78.6% to 78.8% to 79.3% to 77.3%

Power Grid Outages↑ New Nuclear Energy Plants (Worldwide problem)

CPRI ↔ flat 0.3% + ↓ 0.3% + ↓ 0.2%; ↑ 1.1% to ↓ 1.3% Y/Y (CPRI – Chemical Production Regional Indices)

Light Vehicle Sales↓ 14.4 to ↓ 13.8 to ↑ 14.1 (due to China) million-unit pace – ↓ 0.4% Year

Wholesale Trade ↓ 0.1%; ↑ 6.5% to ↑ 2.7% Y/Y

Factory Orders ↓ 1.5% to ↓ 1.9% to ↓ 0.6% to ↑ 2.8% to ↓ 5.2%; ↑ 3.3% to ↓ 1.4% to ↓ 0.8% to ↑ 2.0% to ↓ 3.2% Y/Y

Durable Goods Orders ↓ 4.2% + ↑ 1.6% + ↓ 0.4% + ↓ 5.0% + ↓ 13.2%; ↑ 1.0% to ↑ 2.6% to ↓ 2.2% to ↓ 7.2% to ↓ 20.4% Y/Y

PMI ↓ 54.8% to ↓ 49.6% to ↓ 48.0% to ↓ 47.1% (Purchasing Manager’s Index) (below 50 contracting)

Business Inventories ↑ 0.7% + 0.3% + 0.1% + 0.8% rate; ↑ 7.6% to ↑ 7.9% to ↑ 8.0% to ↑ 8.8% Y/Y

Trade Deficit ↑ $2.1 billion to ↑ $6.4 billion; ↑ $51.8 billion to ↓ $42.0 billion Y/Y

Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) Initial Cost After 31st December 2012 – Taxes on Dividends 15% to 43.4% and Long-term Capital Gains Tax 15% to 23.8%

United States Computer Speed ↑ USA’s Sequoia (IBM) was the fastest super computer in the world, capable of processing more than 16.32 petaflops or quadrillion (thousand trillion) calculations per second to ↑ Jaguar to ↑ Titan (10x more powerful than Jaguar) is NOW the World’s Fastest Computer with 20,000 Trillion calculations per second (20 petaflops) (20 petaflops is the number 20 followed by 15 zeros) and 700 terabytes of Memory capable of tracking and recording Earth’s population and storing millions of data per second on each person in the world.

 

Banks

IMF (International Monetary Fund) Forecast

↓ Lowered Global Growth estimate by 0.3% to 0.2% for 2014

Derivates Held by U.S. Banks

Derivates Held by U.S. Banks

 

 

 

 

U.S. Federal Reserve – Created 23 December 1913

Federal Reserve Monetary Base

The following chart shows currency. The green area of the chart shows the total U.S. dollars and coinage in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury. The thin grey area shows required reserves.

The red area represents excess reserves held by the Fed. These are balances that depository institutions maintain with the Fed beyond what they are required to hold. The Fed pays banks 0.25 percent interest on reserves, both required and excess. In a high risk, zero-interest rate, no-growth economic environment, the banks do not need to make loans to businesses that actually create jobs, hire people, and grow the economy. Such loans always contain an element of risk. So instead of those trillions being available in the credit markets, the banks leave deposits with the Fed earning interest risk-free, and the recovery is stalled. Said differently, the Fed requires that a certain percentage of such deposits be held on account with it to meet withdrawals.

U.S. Dollars & Coinage in Circulation Outside Fed Banks and U.S. Treasury

 

 

 

 

 

 

1982-2013 Dollar Decline 

US Dollar in Massive Long-Term Decline

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1900-2011 Velocity of Money

Velocity of Money

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fed Gordian Knot

Fed Gordian Knot

 

 

 

 

 

 

US Federal Reserve Stimulus↑ It takes $2 trillion in stimulus, $1 trillion in fiscal deficits, and $1 trillion in quantitative easing (QE) or monetary injections to create $300 billion in real GDP growth, or about 2% GDP growth on average.

Fed QE (Quantitative Easing) The Fed’s QE program has hurt millions of Americans by eroding their standard of living.

We are becoming what Europe was, while Europe is becoming what we were.

Change in Central Bank Official Gold Reserves

Change in Central Bank Official Gold Reserves

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International Reserve Assets

International Reserve Assets

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Technology

China and United States

Social Networks

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

United Kingdom

UK National Debt ↑ 48.6% to ↑ 550.2% to ↓ 544.4% (total country debt-to-GDP)

UK GDP ↓ 0.3% + ↓ 0.2% + ↓ 0.7%

 

Australia

Imports

Australia Exports Flows

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ireland

Ireland Total Public & Private Debt ↑ 626% (total country debt-to-GDP)

Ireland National Debt ↑ 1001.2% (debt-to-GDP – increasing)

Ireland GDP ↑ 355.8% (debt-to-GDP – contracting – bankrupt)

Ireland Unemployment Rate14.7%

 

EU Europe (17 Nation States in Eurozone) (27 Nation States in European Union)

2014 1 in 10 working households now Live in Poverty

EU National Debt ↑ 412.9% to ↑ 462.7% (total countries debt-to-GDP)

EU GDP ↓ 0.3% + ↓ 0.7% + ↓ 0.2%; ↓ 20.9% (contracting)

EU Bank Combined Assets↓$14.9 T v. US Bank Combined Assets ↓ $13.9 T

EU Consumer Confidence ↓ 94.4 gauge

EU Eurocoin Indicator ↓ – 0.24% to ↓ – 0.33% (Centre for Economic Policy Research)

EU Unemployment Rate10.9% to 11.3% to ↑ 11.6% to ↑ 11.8% to ↑ 12.0%

EU Unemployment17,914,000 to 18,002,000 work force (Eurostat) to ↑ 20.0%

EU Unemployment Youth Under 25 Years ↑ 24.4+%

EU Retail Sales ↓ 1.9%; ↓ 2.6% Y/Y (contracting)

EU PMI↓ 45.9% to 46.7% to 48.3% (Purchasing Manager’s Index)

EU Industrial Production ↓ 9.0%

EU ISM Manufacturing↓ 49.3 to ↓ 48.7 points (below 50 contracting)

 

 

Germany

Germany Total Public & Private Debt ↑ 350% (total country debt-to-GDP)

Germany National Debt ↑ 148.1% (debt-to-GDP – increasing)

Germany GDP ↓ 2.7% + ↓ 1.0%; ↓ 1.0% to ↓ 2.0% Y/Y (contracting)

Germany Consumer Confidence ↓ 103.2 to ↓ 102.3 points

Germany Business Confidence ↓ 95.5 to ↓ 94.2 points

Germany PMI ↓ 49.71% to ↓ 47.4% (Purchasing Manager’s Index)

Germany Industry and Trade Confidence ↓ 111.5 to ↓ 111.2 points

Germany Unemployment ↑ 5.5%

 

France

France National Debt 254.4% (debt-to-GDP – increasing)

France National Debt ↑ $795.0 billion

France GDP ↓ 0.3% + ↓ 1.0%; ↓ 1.3% Y/Y (contracting)

France Unemployment ↑ 10.5% to ↑ 10.9%

France Consumer Spending ↓ 2.9%

France PMI ↓ 44.1% to ↓ 42.7% (Purchasing Manager’s Index)

France Industrial Production ↓ 1.2% (contracting)

 

Greece

Greece Total Public & Private Debt ↑ 200% (total country debt-to-GDP)

Greece National Debt 292.4% (debt-to-GDP – increasing – bankrupt)

Greece GDP ↓ 5.5% rate (contracting)

Greece Unemployment ↑ 17.3% to ↑ 21.8% to ↑ 25.0% to ↑ 26.0% to ↑ 28.0% to projected ↑ 32.0%

Greece Unemployment Youth Under 25 Years ↑ 50.0+% to ↑ 58.0+% to ↑ 61.4+%

 

Italy

Italy Total Public & Private Debt332% (total country debt-to-GDP)

Italy National Debt ↑ 136.6% (debt-to-GDP – increasing – bankrupt)

Italy National Debt ↑ $795.0 billion

Italy GDP ↓ 1.2% + ↓ 0.8% + ↓ 0.7% + ↓ 1.0% + ↓ 2.8%; ↓ 2.5% to ↓ 1.7% to ↓ 2.7% to ↓ 5.5% Y/Y (contracting)

Italy Debt % of GDP ↓ 48.6% (contracting)

Italy Consumer Confidence ↓ 89.5 points

Italy Unemployment ↑ 9.8% to ↑ 10.8% to ↑ 11.0%

Italy Unemployment Youth ↑ 25.0% to ↑ 35.2% to ↑ 37.0% to ↑ 40.0%

Italy Industrial Production ↓ 1.4%

Italy Industrial Sales ↓ 12.0% to ↓ 14.0% Y/Y

 

Spain

Spain Total Public & Private Debt ↑ 400% (total country debt-to-GDP)

Spain National Debt ↑ 200.3% (debt-to-GDP – increasing – bankrupt)

Spain GDP ↓ 1.7% + ↓ 0.4%; ↓ 2.2% Y/Y (contracting)

Spain Budget Deficit ↑ 8.5% (percent of GDP)

Spain Retail Sales ↓ 9.8% (contracting)

Spain Unemployment ↑ 24.8% to ↑ 25.1% to ↑ 26.6%

Spain Unemployment Youth Under 25 Years ↑ 50.0% to ↑ 57.4%

 

Poland

Poland GDP ↓ 3.5% to ↓ 2.4% (contracting)

Poland Retail Sales ↓2.1% to ↓ 1.5%

 

Portugal

Portugal Total Public & Private Debt ↑ 406% (total country debt-to-GDP)

Portugal National Debt ↑ 207.3% (debt-to-GDP – increasing – bankrupt)

Portugal Unemployment ↑ 15.0% to ↑ 25.0%

Portugal GDP ↓ 3.4% to ↓ 5.7% to ↓ 50.0% (contracting)

Portugal Unemployment Youth ↑ 36.0%

Portugal Retail Sales ↓ 25.0%

Portugal Tax on Electricity ↑ 6.0% to ↑ 23.0%

 

Russia

Russia Billionaires ↑ Most Billionaires in World (WSJ)

Russia First Trillonaire Reported to be Vladimir Putin (WSJ)

Russia GDP ↑ $1.78 T (2011) (Gross Domestic Product : economy produced goods and services)

Russia GDP ↑ 3.5%

2005-2014 Russia GDP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Central Bank of the Russian Federation Gold Reserves

Central Bank of the Russian Federation

 

 

 

 

 

 

Russia Unemployment ↔ 4.9% to ↑ 5.2%

Russia Income ↑ 10.2%

Russia Military ↑ 667,000 (active-duty)

 

Latin America

Brazil

Brazil GDP ↓ 7.0% to 3.1% (contracting)

 

Asia

Wealth Rankings in Asia

Wealth Rankings in Asia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

China

China Beige Book Regional Overview

China Beige Book Regional Overview

 

 

 

 

 

Region 1: Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang

Growth slowed – retail & real estate gains weakening sharply – despite stability in manufacturing and pickups in services, transport, and agriculture. Borrowing was stable with rates down at banks and up at non-bank lenders. Hiring slowed, as did margin growth. On-quarter weakness was modest, but the on-year drop was worrisome.

Region 2: Guangdong, Fujian

Despite the national slowdown, Guangdong’s pickup continued, driven by manufacturing and transport. Growth was steady in retail, off in services and property. Wage growth remained high but costs inflation eased, boosting margins. Borrowing ticked up, with bank rates steady and shadow rates up. The export power-house found an encouraging second wind.

Region 3: Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong, Hebei

The capital region saw Q1’s worst results, due to trouble in services and manufacturing. Property and mining were stable, retail slightly better. Margin growth suffered. Borrowing was stable and moved to banks, on the country’s lowest interest rates. Beijing is leading the national economic slowdown.

Region 4: Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning

The Northeast slowed as mining contracted and manufacturing, property, and farming growth eased. Services was stable and retail saw a pick-up. Hiring and wages strengthened, while pricing weakened, pressuring margins. Borrowing ticked up, rates easing. Rebalancing does not look easy in this old industrial region.

Region 5: Hubei, Henan, Chongqing, Sichuan, Anhui, Jiangxi

Growth slowed sharply, slipping in retail, services, property, farming, and mining, with only manufacturing stable. Hiring was steady but input costs grew faster, narrowing margin gains. Borrowing slid again, with lower interest rates in both formal and shadow finance – not an encouraging trend.

Region 6: Shaanxi, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia

Growth took a hit, gains slowing in this crucial mining sector. Manufacturing, real estate and, especially, retail weakened. Services and transport were the bright spots. Hiring and margin growth both eased. Borrowing was flat as rates went up. The North remains dependent on struggling mining.

Region 7: Guizhou, Guangxi, Yunnan, Hainan, Hunan

Again out of sync with the rest of China, the Southwest sped up. Manufacturing, transport, and mining improved, but retail, services, and real estate saw growth slow. Hiring and input costs picked up, but so did pricing and margins. Borrowing ticked up, as shadow lenders’ rates moved back above banks’ rates.

Region 8: Xinjiang, Tibet, Gansu, Qinghai

The West again boasted China’s best overall growth, though manufacturing, retail, and services slowed. Only property picked up, with mining and transport stable. Hiring and input cost growth were steady, but pricing and margin growth eased. Borrowing remained China’s least frequent as rates jumped.

Manufacturing is fine, yet the economy is not

The pace of Chinese economic expansion has painfully slowed. Revenue, sales, profit, and wage growth are all weaker than a year ago. The slowdown is particularly steep in the North [region 6] and Northeast [region 4] and also pronounced in Beijing [region 3] and Central China (region 5).

By sector, stable first-quarter growth in manufacturing confirms our long-standing thesis that it is no longer the economy’s bellwether…

A bounce-back later this year is possible

The worst performer according to CBB figures, both on-quarter and on-year, is real estate and construction. While property companies are getting crushed, the sector is also notoriously unstable for both structural and political reasons. It would be no surprise if real estate were to rally before the end of the year.

More immediate reason for optimism: Growth in new domestic orders was solid (save in the Northeast), and domestic orders and export orders were both stronger in powerhouse Guangdong. The results do not indicate a boom later in 2014, but they do suggest that linear forecasts of continued deterioration are overly simplistic.

Financial segmentation is profound

The ongoing debates about monetary policy assume that anticipated loosening or tightening applies across the spectrum of borrowers. CBB data say otherwise, and in multiple ways. First, while the number of firms reporting that they borrowed stabilized in Q1, it did so at a very low level. Shoving more liquidity at the credit market will have limited effects until participation expands. This includes RRR cuts – though of course these may occur for political reasons.

Second, shadow finance may be revving up for a comeback. CBB numbers show a recovery in the sales of wealth management products (WMPs), likely due to competition from online banking. This is cash leaving the traditional banking sector and, while non-bank lending did not pick up in the first quarter, the groundwork is being laid for it to do so.

Online banking may be encouraging riskier behavior

Online lenders are typically viewed as a force for liberalization, as well as a potentially healthier alternative to unregulated shadow finance. Yet our data show their proliferation would impart significant costs as well…

What appears to be happening is the higher returns available in online banking are forcing banks to move more transactions off-balance sheet, in order to avoid the interest rate cap. While this may accommodate policy goals in the short term, an uptick in off-balance sheet funding portends more shadow bank lending down the line.

Interest rate spread between banks & shadow banks highest in a year

Bank loan rates and bond yields eased slightly this quarter, but the cost of capital increased again for those borrowing from non-bank lenders. While the shifts were not dramatic, the spread between bank and non-bank loan rates nationwide is now the largest since Q1 2013. This highlights the still more challenging road for those firms, principally domestic private entities that are pushed outside formal lending channels.

Growth Is Slowing But Not Collapsing (So Far…)

After reading through the latest report, consulting with friends who are also familiar with the research, and bombarding Leland with a never-ending stream of questions for the last month, John and I still cannot claim to have enough information to make a directional call on the world’s most powerful (and least understood) macro force… but we know more about the inner workings of China’s economy than we did when we wrote to you a couple of months ago.

Great data often has that effect – it’s like shining a light into the shadows (including China’s shadow banks). We can see the nuanced regional contrast in economic activity, the modest (but still insufficient) rebalancing between sectors, and pressure points in the credit markets that suggest last summer’s interbank volatility may return in 2014.

We also see a far more mixed picture of economic activity than a lot of the widely followed headline data suggests. The overall pace of Chinese economic growth is clearly slowing but not collapsing. The credit transmission mechanism is obviously broken, as you can see in the chart below (with government and government-sponsored borrowers in zombie industries consuming the majority of the country’s credit… in turn forcing households to borrow through shadow banks at massive risk premiums); but so far, the credit bubble is not imploding.

State Credit

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Source: Wei Yao, “China: A whiff of debt deflation.” Societe Generale Research, May 9, 2014)

China’s greatest challenge will lie in deleveraging the economy while also rebalancing toward a consumption-driven growth model for the first time in modern history. That cannot happen as long as households remain repressed by unequal access to credit markets or intentionally suppressed exchange rates, which essentially represent a transfer of household wealth from workers to state-favored firms. But reforming the system will require a greater slowdown than China’s policymakers are letting on. And, Leland warns, Beijing runs the risk of blowing its credibility and instigating capital flight if the divergence between official forecasts and China’s actual economic experience grows too large. (China Beige Book International)

Global Total Public & Private Debt

↑ 212% to ↑ 345% to ↑ 400% to ↑ 435.6% (total country debt-to-GDP – CBO)

China Billionaires122 (Forbes)

China Millionaires1.3 million (BCG – Boston Consulting Group)

China National Debt ↑ 43.3% (debt-to-GDP – increasing)

China National Debt ↑ $2.78 T (increasing)

China GDP

China GDP

 

 

 

 

China GDP ↑ $14.8 T (Gross Domestic Product : economy produced goods and services)

China GDP ↑ 9.2% (2011) to 8.1% to ↓ 7.5% (contracting)

China GDP Rank ↑ China first largest economy in world 2010 (Peterson Institute and University of Pennsylvania)

China FOREX Reserves ↑ $3.2 T (currency market)

China Inflation v. Deflation – Answer : Only economy in world in real Inflation growth

China Income Average Pay Increase 15.0%

China Income 7.6% (inflation adjusted wages)

China Education World Rank1st (Students Rank : Program for International Student Assessment)

China Education Math & Science World Rank1st (Shanghai) (Students Rank : Program for International Student Assessment)

China Work Force ↑ 810,000,000

China Unemployment Rate ↓ 3.0%; ↑ 97.0% (employed)

China Consumer Prices ↑3.2% to ↑3.6%

China Retail Sales ↓ 14.7% to ↑ 15.2% to ↓ 13.7% to ↑ 13.4%

China Home Prices ↓ (deflation)

China Housing Vacancy ↑ 24%

China Business Sentiment MNI ↓ 51.92 to ↑ 53.21 points

China Manufacturing 9.5% (slowing)

China PMI↓ 49.3% to ↓ 48.7% to ↓ 48.2% to ↓ 47.6% (Purchasing Manager’s Index)

China New Export Orders ↓ 47.9 to ↓ 46.8 ↓ 45.9 points

China Exports ↑ 8.9%

China Imports 6.3%

China Imports Flows

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Energy Information Agency (EIA) China has twice as much proven oil reserves as the US.

China Proven Oil Reserves

China Computer Speed ↑ China’s Tianhe-1A (NUDT) is the third fastest super computer in the world, capable of processing more than 2.57 petaflops or quadrillion (thousand trillion) calculations per second

China Military ↓ 2.2 to ↑ 2.28 m (largest active-duty military in world), 7,400 Tanks, 71 Submarines, 2,004 Aircraft combat-ready, 1 Aircraft Carrier advanced state of the art

 

India

India GDP↓10.0% to ↓ 8.4% to ↓ 6.3% to ↓ 5.5% (contracting)

 

Japan

Japan National Debt 230% to ↑ 620% to ↑ 650% to ↑ 656.8% (debt-to-GDP – contracting)

Japan National Debt

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per Capita Sovereign Debt Per Person ↑ $129,711

Japan National Savings Rate

Japan National Savings Rate

 

 

 

 

 

 

Japan GDP ↓ 3.5% (contracting)

Japan Computer Speed ↑ Japan’s K Computer (Fujitsu) is the second fastest super computer in the world, capable of processing more than 8.16 petaflops or quadrillion (thousand trillion) calculations per second

Japan Balance of Trade (BOT)

Japan Balance of Trade

Japan Exports Flows

Japan Exports Flows

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Korea

South Korea GDP ↓ 6.2% in 2010 to ↓ 3.6% in 2011 to ↓ 3.0% in 2012 (debt-to-GDP – contracting)

South Korea Exports 50% of GDP ↓ 8.8% + ↓ 6.3%

 

Africa

South Africa

South Africa

 

 

 

 

 

Middle East

Iraq (Persia)

Iraq GDP ↓ (debt-to-GDP – contracting)

Iraq Oil Exports 2.317 headed to 3.4 (million barrels per day)

 

Iran (Persia)

Iran GDP ↓ (debt-to-GDP – contracting)

Iran Oil Exports 2.2 in 2011 to ↓ 1.25 (million barrels per day)

Shia vs. Sunni

 

Global

World Debt

World Debt

Global Market Income Redistribution Share

Global Market Share

Value of Cross-Border Goods Flows Between Regions

Value of Cross-Border Goods Flows Between Regions

Value of Cross-Border Financials Flows Between Regions

Value of Cross-Border Financials Flows Between Regions

Value of Cross-Border Services Flows Between Regions

Value of Cross-Border Services Flows Between Regions

Global Poverty Levels

$1.25 per Day 18.4%

$2.00 per Day 41.5%

(World Bank)

2014 Index Economic Freedom

2014 Index Economic Freedom - Heritage Foundation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Global Total Public & Private Debt

↑ 345% to ↑ 400% to ↑ 435.6% (total country debt-to-GDP – CBO)

Global Debt↑ $184.0 trillion (increasing)

Global GDP ↓ $69.7 trillion (debt-to-GDP – contracting)

Global GDP ↓ 6.9% in 2011 + ↓ 10.0% in 2012 (contracting)

Highest GDPs Per Capita Per Head $99,557 per head Norway, $56,210 per head Denmark, $55,244 per head Sweden, $46,178 per head Finland 

For comparison, the U.S.’s GDP per capita per head is at $53,315

Global Employment

Global Employment

 

 

 

 

 

Fertility Rate & Life Expectancy

Fertility Rate & Life Expectancy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1963 Top Countries Life Expectancy No.1 Japan, No. 2 France, No. 3 United States (OECD – Organization for Economic Development)

2014 Top Countries Life Expectancy No.1 Japan, No. 2 Switzerland, No. 3 Australia, No. 28 United States (OECD)

Global Millionaires 13.8 million worldwide (BCG – Boston Consulting Group)

Most Billionaires in World ↑ Russia (WSJ)

First Trillonaire Reported to be Vladimir Putin of Russia (WSJ)

Global Top 15 Countries Ranked by Wealth

Top 15 Countries Ranked by Wealth

Global Demand Economic Output Slowing (Ifo Institute)

CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-earnings) Global Stocks

CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-earnings)

Global Economic Growth (1980-2011)

1980-2011 Global Economic Growth Rankings

Global Consumer Consumption

Global Emerging Markets ↓

Emerging Markets

Global Trade↓ 5.0% in 2011 to ↓ 3.7% in 2012 (contracting)

Global Banking System Derivatives Debt Bet ↑$1,000.00+ T or $1+ Q (Q = quadrillion or 1,000,000,000,000,000 or thousand trillion) (15 times world GDP)

20 Leading Economies Debt as % of GDP (gross domestic product)

20. United States: 100%
19. Hungary: 110.3%
18. Italy: 136.6%
17. Australia: 139.9%
16. Spain: 169.5%
15. Greece: 178.9%
14. Germany: 183.9%
13. Portugal: 207.3%
12. Austria: 241.3%
11. Finland: 244.8%
10. Norway: 246.9%
9. France: 254.4%
8. Sweden: 262.3%
7. Hong Kong: 265.7%
6. Denmark: 283.2%
5. Belgium: 353.7%
4. Netherlands: 367%
3. Switzerland: 391.3%
2. United Kingdom: 451.4%
1. Ireland: 1,239%

Global CPRI ↔ flat 0.7% + ↑ 0.4% + ↑ 0.1%; ↑ 1.5% to ↑1.8% to ↑ 2.2% to ↑ 2.3% to ↑ 3.1% Y/Y (CPRI – Chemical Production Regional Indices)

Global Semiconductor Sales ↓ 1.6% + ↓ 0.1%; ↓ 7.8% Y/Y

Global Manufacturing PMI51.1 to ↓ 50.3 to ↓ 48.6 to ↓ 48.1 to ↑ 48.9 to ↑ 49.7 (JP Morgan) (below 50 contracting)

GDP Per Capita/PPP and the ‘Trust’ Indicator

Countries

Trust Indicator

1010 GDP Per Capita/PPP

Albania

5.82

$7,848

Algeria

2.9

$7,325

Argentina

3.76

$17,660

Australia

8.7

$40,847

Austria

8.42

$41,556

Bahamas

6.08

$30,415

Bahrain

6.94

$27,735

Bangladesh

4.09

$1,909

Barbados

6.54

$24,989

Belgium

8.05

$37,781

Belize

5.67

$8,219

Benin

5.95

$1,620

Bolivia

3.59

$4,793

Botswana

8.16

$16,105

Brazil

5.24

$11,769

Bulgaria

4.85

$13,789

Burundi

2.6

$605

Cameroon

4.76

$2,259

Canada

8.74

$40,519

Central Afr. Rep.

4.59

$767

Chad

4.76

$1,867

Chile

7.03

$17,361

China

5.75

$8,387

Colombia

3.67

$10,247

Congo, Dem. R.

1.66

$349

Congo, Rep. Of

2.78

$4,543

Costa Rica

7.02

$11,923

Croatia

7.67

$18,01

Cyprus

8.41

$27,521

Czech Rep.

6.74

$27,063

Denmark

9.12

$37,048

Dominican Rep.

4.28

$9,287

Ecuador

3.26

$8,487

Egypt

5.4

$6,455

El Salvador

3.84

$7,550

Estonia

7.39

$20,379

Fiji

5.5

$4,643

Finland

9.09

$35,981

France

7.96

$35,068

Gabon

4.34

$16,313

Germany

8.28

$38,077

Ghana

5.74

$3,113

Greece

5.75

$26,258

Guatemala

3.87

$5,079

Guinea-Bissau

3.11

$1,144

Guyana

6.09

$7,569

Haiti

2.04

$1,235

Honduras

4.3

$4,444

Hong Kong

7.97

$49,417

Hungary

6.56

$19,591

Iceland

8.53

$38,060

India

6.22

$3,663

Indonesia

4.38

$4,666

Iran

6.4

$13,184

Ireland

8.85

$40,838

Israel

6.96

$31,467

Italy

5.95

$30,464

Jamaica

5.93

$8,928

Japan

7.49

$34,748

Jordan

6.53

$5,907

Kenya

4.63

$1,741

Korea, South

6.14

$31,220

Kuwait

8.04

$41,701

Latvia

6.46

$16,818

Lithuania

6.24

$19,125

Luxembourg

8.96

$80,559

Madagascar

3.21

$944

Malawi

5.92

$851

Malaysia

7.14

$16,240

Mali

5.62

$1,128

Malta

8.6

$25,598

Mauritius

7.86

$14,962

Mexico

4.49

$14,653

Morocco

7.3

$5,080

Namibia

7.84

$7,451

Nepal

2.84

$1,249

Netherlands

9.08

$42,023

New Zealand

9.03

$28,012

Nicaragua

4.07

$3,206

Niger

4.14

$771

Nigeria

4.79

$2,582

Norway

8.81

$53,396

Oman

9.12

$27,567

Pakistan

3.09

$2,786

Panama

5.46

$14,096

Pap. New Guinea

4.77

$2,532

Paraguay

2.73

$6,224

Peru

4.77

$10,062

Philippines

3.85

$4,080

Poland

6.67

$20,184

Portugal

7.05

$23,363

Romania

5.97

$12,493

Russia

4.43

$16,736

Rwanda

3.58

$1,334

Senegal

4.2

$1,970

Sierra Leone

5.81

$1,132

Singapore

8.11

$59,710

Slovak Rep

5.67

$23,304

Slovenia

6.88

$28,843

South Africa

6.98

$10,970

Spain

6.79

$30,478

Sri Lanka

4.6

$5,664

Sweden

9.2

$40,705

Switzerland

8.76

$44,452

Syria

4.9

$5,041

Taiwan

6.86

$37,716

Tanzania

6.83

$1,610

Thailand

5.09

$9,398

Togo

3.19

$1,048

Turkey

4.62

$14,393

Uganda

5.44

$1,385

Ukraine

4.5

$7,222

Unit. Arab Em.

7.18

$47,729

United Kingdom

8.74

$36,522

United States

7.12

$48,328

Uruguay

6.01

$15,112

Venezuela

1.46

$12,568

Zambia

6.18

$1,611

Zimbabwe

3.21

$515

 

Strategic Resources

Gold (↑ $1,622.70 end 2011) to ↓ $1,609.30 to ↑ $1,622.60 to ↑ $1,687.60 to ↑ $1,740.50 to ↑ $1,772.70 to ↑ $1,778.00 to ↑ $1,780.00 to ↓ $1,724.00 to ↓ $1,675.00 to ↑ $1,714.70 to ↓ $1,705.60 to (↓ $1,660.10 end 2012) to ↓ $1,648.90 to ↑ $1,663.20 to ↓ $1,572.30 to ↑ $1,582.70 to ↓ $1,469.40 to ↓ $1,393.00 to ↓ $1,235.20 to (↓ $1,202.30 end 2013) to ↑ $1,242.50 to ↑ $1,325.50 to ↓ $1,292.30 to ↑ $1,291.40 to ↓ $1,274.00 to ↑ $1,326.10 (per Troy ounce)

Gold

 

Silver (↑ $27.801 end 2011) to ↑ $28.06 to ↑ $31.44 to ↑ $33.69 to ↑ $34.656 to ↓ $34.638 to ↓ $34.57 to ↓ $32.097 to ↓ $30.86 to ↑ $32.37 to ↑ $33.16 to (↓ $30.20 end 2012) to ↓ $29.95 to ↑ $31.35 to ↓ $28.49 to ↓ $27.48 to ↓ $24.28 to ↓ $22.24 to ↓ $19.60 to (↓ $19.37 end 2013) to ↓ $19.16 to ↑ $21.22 to ↓ $20.05 to ↓ $19.33 to ↑ $19.66 to ↑ $21.80 (per Troy ounce)

Silver

 

Copper (↓ $336.75 end 2011) to ↑ $340.40 to ↑ $345.70 to ↑ $364.50 to ↑ $383.25 to ↓ $378.90 to ↓ $377.80 to ↓ $363.75 to ↓ $348.15 to ↓ $346.15 to ↑ $366.50 to (↓ $356.70 end 2012) to ↑ $369.35 to ↑ $372.35 to ↓ $350.10 to ↑ $336.40 to ↓ $324.20 to ↑ $329.25 to ↓ $319.75 to (↑ $339.65 end 2013) to ↓ $319.25 to ↓ $318.70 to ↓ $304.35 to ↑ $314.70  to ↓ $302.75 to ↑ $319.55 (pound)

Oil Brent Crude (↑ $114.57 end 2011) to ↓ $114.25 to ↑ $116.66 to ↓ $111.42 to ↑ $112.02 to ↓ $110.14 to ↓ $105.60 to ↑ $108.95 to ↓ $107.25 to ↑ ($108.97 end 2012) to ↑ $111.31 to ↑ $116.22 to ↓ $110.40 to ↑ $110.87 to ↓ $103.65 to ↓ $100.39 to ↑ $110.02 to (↑ $110.80 end 2013) to ↓ $106.42 to ↑ $109.10 to ↓ $104.73 to ↓ $102.02 to ↑ $112.46 to ↓ $112.18 (Best Oil per barrel Measure of Price: 42 US gallons, 158.9873 liters, 34.9723 Imperial UK gallons)

Oil WTI (West Texas Intermediate) (↑ $91.40 end 2011) to ↑ $93.37 to ↑ $96.47 to ↓ $96.42 to ↑ $99.00 to ↓ $92.89 to ↓ $89.88 to ↑ $90.05 to ↓ $84.86 to ↑ $86.92 to ↓ $86.06 to (↑ $88.66 end 2012) to ↑ $93.09 to ↑ $97.31 to ↓ $90.68 to ↑ $96.62 to ↓ $94.41 to ↓ $91.97 to ↑ $93.33 ( ↑ $98.42 end 2013) to ↓ $97.57  to ↑ $102.55 to ↓ $99.52 to ↑ $109.75 to ↓ $106.91 to ↓ $105.42 (Oil per barrel: 42US gallons, 158.9873 liters, 34.9723 Imperial UK gallons)

Natural Gas (↓ $2.877 end 2011) to ↓ $2.782 to ↑ $2.799 to ↓ $2.682 to ↑ $2.943 to ↓ $2.885 to ↑ $3.396 to ↑ $3.617 to ↓ $3.55 to ↑ $3.79 to ↓ $3.49 to (↓ $3.45 end 2012) to ↓ $3.29 to ↑ $3.37 to ↑ $3.46  to ↑ $3.97 to ↑ $4.15 to ↓ $3.98 to ↓ $3.92 to ( ↑ $4.23 end 2013) to ↑ $4.92 to ↓ $4.61  to ↓ $4.35 to ↑ $4.41 to ↑ $4.74 to ↓ $4.44 (MMBtu)

Chess One Down

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An American Creed

Dean Alfange

Dean Alfange

“I do not choose to be a common man.

It is my right to be uncommon if I can.

I seek opportunity not security.

I do not wish to be a kept citizen, humbled and dulled by having the state look after me.

I want to take the calculated risk; to dream and to build, to fail and to succeed.

I refuse to barter incentive for a dole. I prefer the challenges of life to the guaranteed existence; the thrill of fulfillment to the stale calm of utopia.

I will not trade freedom for beneficence nor my dignity for a handout.

I will never cower before any master nor bend to any threat.

It is my heritage to stand erect, proud and unafraid; to think and act for myself, enjoy the benefit of my creations, and to face the world boldly and say, this I have done.

All this is what it means to be an American.”

 

“Inflation”, Bernard Baruch wrote, “flows from the selfish struggle for special advantage among pressure groups. Each seeks tax cuts or price increases or wage raises for itself while urging the others to make the sacrifice, and with little regard for the national interest.”

“The man on the street…” declared Leonard Paul Spacek, “… has the right to assume that he can accept as accurate the fundamental end results shown by the financial statements in annual reports.”

“There must be no sharing of nuclear technology with allies…” advocated General Leslie R. Groves, “…even within the U.S. government; he zealously embargoed information from most agencies and departments, including the White House itself.”