October 2003

No. 022

“A Government Intelligence Hypothetical Example” Part I of V

The year is 2070 and China is the center of capitalism.

First, you are at home watching your favorite television program when it is interrupted by a news bulletin: RIOTS BREAK OUT IN WARSAW. The reporter goes on to say that Biala Podlaska, Lublin, Chelm, Tomaszow Lubelski, Jaroslaw and Sanok in the southeastern part of Poland has been sealed off to outsiders; that telephone lines have been cut and all satellite transmissions disrupted; that there are unconfirmed reports of dozens of casualties; that China has said nothing but it is expected that the Chinese will react swiftly and harshly to bring the situation under control.

Now, this is information - a report of the raw, basic facts as they are understood at the time. No question more facts will be forthcoming in the immediate future, and presumably, when they do, these additional facts will also be passed along in the same raw, basic form as before. Again, your favorite television program is interrupted by a news bulletin that Bartoszyce, Suwalki, Grajewo and Bialystok in Poland east and north of Warsaw has also been sealed off to outsiders. For most people this flow of raw information is all that is needed to satisfy the curiosity and to feel up-to-the-minute. After all, rioting in Warsaw, however surprising, appalling or interesting is unlikely to have a direct impact on one's own job or even one's own business organization as it is too distant, too remote.

The Prime Minister of France

The rioting in Warsaw will undoubtedly be brought under control by the Chinese, either with their own troops or with Polish troops under China command and control. An emergency meeting of the NATO ambassadors has already been scheduled for 2 p.m. this afternoon in Brussels, Belgium, and we expect heavy pressure to join a global consensus statement condemning the Warsaw regime. We also expect that NATO and Russian forces will be put on alert, but we believe this will be more for public appearances than out of genuine concern that the Dragon Pact will use the rioting as an excuse to launch a military attack against the West. We see no danger to French interests, provided the situation comes under control quickly, as we believe is likely.

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