November 2003

No. 023

“A Government Intelligence Hypothetical Example” Part II of V

The Prime Minister of Germany

While rioting is reported to be spreading to other Polish cities, we remain hopeful order will be restored promptly. The President of Poland has issued assurances that the matter will be disposed of soon. Germany believes the immediate situation has been blown out of proportion by the media and will be snuffed relatively quickly. Meanwhile, Germany remains cautious.

The Prime Minister of Russia

We have early indications that the rioting will spread to several of the Polish cities. There are expected Chinese troop movements across Russian territory. Our military has been put on alert while monitoring China troop movements will continue. The Russian Security Council has taken the crisis under advisement and will formulate an appropriate response. A formal declaration will be forth coming.

The Foreign Minister of Vietnam, Who Is in Washington to Discuss Continued Open Trade

The rioting in Warsaw is spreading; it is expected to continue spreading possibly to other states. The President and his military advisors are studying the movement of events closely in anticipation of possible southern China troop movements into Vietnam and their ally India. India has adopted a silent position. An informal request by the US State Department has been extended to postpone the planned request for a change in US tariffs to permit more Vietnam rice and textiles into the United States. In sum, we expect the President of the United States will be too preoccupied to deal seriously with this trade issue, despite its great importance to the people of Vietnam.

The President of the United States

The President and his National Security Council will be preoccupied today with the crisis in Warsaw. While the President is expected to go forward with our 10a meeting with the Foreign Minister of Vietnam, we expect the meeting to be shortened. The State Department will announce shortly a briefing on the situation and would look kindly on a public statement by the President of Vietnam condemning the rioting forces in east Poland and the need for China troop intervention. We have early indications that the anticipated China troop movements will be on two fronts as public announcements in China suggest the rioting in east Poland is a result of Vietnam dissidents under the Polish-Vietnam reciprocal trade and expatriate exchange agreement. We will watch closely any further sequencing of events unfolding.

In Moscow, the Russian leadership is apparently meeting this morning, and we expect to have some evidence of troop movements by late afternoon. The Russian SVR, with support from British MI6 and American CIA, has taken the lead in looking into the matter to confirm the extent of reports. The EU draft communiqué' from Brussels is being circulated and should receive unanimous approval with the possible exception of France. All concerned should anticipate an urgent request from the Chancellor of Germany to avoid incendiary rhetoric of any type. Germany is worried that the Arab League will inadvertently encourage the rioters and force China to invade Poland which Germany would quite properly view as catastrophic to their interests.

As yet, there is no evidence of broad public support for the east Polish rioters. But, if China and Russia overreact and use excessive force, there might well be a polarization of powers drawn into the conflict. Moreover, if a growing movement were to take hold in Poland it could well trigger the rise of parallel movements in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Turkey. It is this possibility that worries China.

As it is important to distinguish between information and intelligence, we have quit a bit of information from the prior statements with the beginnings of intelligence. Thus, intelligence may be forth coming in the verification of what is happening exactly and why specifically. A subtle transition was made. Our story is next ready to talk about the business scenario related to the aforementioned events.

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