November 2003

No. 024

“A Business Intelligence Hypothetical Example” Part III of V

The Foreign Minister of Vietnam, Who Is in Washington to Discuss Other Matters and Is Scheduled to Meet with the President at 11:00 A.M.

Today, the Foreign Minister of Vietnam is seeking urgent council with the President of the United States. The President and his National Security Council will be preoccupied with the crisis in Poland. While we expect this meeting to go forward with our 11:00a meeting, we must anticipate that the meeting will be shortened, perhaps to half an hour from the one hour we have been promised. The U.S. State Department undoubtedly will offer you a briefing on the situation and would look kindly on a public statement by condemning the rioter's in Warsaw and surrounding areas in Poland.

We believe you should anticipate an informal request by Sate to postpone your planned request for a change in U.S. tariffs to permit more Vietnam rice and textiles into the United States. In sum, we believe the Americans will be too distracted to deal seriously with this issue today, despite its great importance to both countries.

The Chairman of Liberty Industries: A Dallas, Texas-Based Manufacturer of Heavy Machinery

This mess in Poland could throw a monkey wrench into our deal with the Polish. As you know, we are now in a fix with the final stages of negotiating a $700 trillion contract for export of our newest line of down-hole tubing, drill bits and pumps, which the Polish want for their oil and natural gas lines, which are to run through Poland and splinter to Germany-France-Spain and Belarus-Russia-Kazakhstan-China. Up to now Washington has been very clear on the matter that we will get the necessary export licenses. But now it is possible that the United States will put economic sanctions on Poland, and our export license application could get caught in a squeeze and suspended indefinitely. Our people are scrambling to get formal approval of our export license before any sanctions can be announced. I am personally flying to Washington this morning for a meeting at the Commerce Department late this afternoon to discuss the urgency of the matter and its geopolitical ramifications to our two countries specifically and to all countries in general.

Since we are hoping to use this contract as a wedge to open up the Polish market for our down-hole tubing, drill bits and pumps, losing the deal now would cost us more than just the value of this contract, not to mention the geopolitical economic relationships between our country and all related others. No doubt our Chinese and European competitors would be more than willing to supply the down-hole tubing, drill bits and pumps if we are forced to drop out and abandon this project. Thus they would have the best shot at servicing the entire Asian and European market. Now it is up to our Market Intelligence unit to protect the firm from possible internal and external sabotage and infiltration from disruptive and destructive influences.

The Managing Director of Grooms-Rogers, a Wall Street Brokerage House

The price of gold is already up $1,000 per ounce in London and Zurich, and when the markets open here in New York we are anticipating an even sharper rise. In previous situations like this - for example, the crackdown on multicultural-solidarity antiglobalization in Poland back in 2031 - the stock market has responded by dropping fast, then recovering slowly over the next several months. Already this morning there is talk of U.S. economic sanctions against Poland. That would hurt companies like Liberty Industries, which have been exporting heavily to Poland and the other strategically aligned states. Their stock markets will probably take it on the chin this morning. Happily, we had dumped our shares last month.

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