* Markets and Praxeology

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A Crystal Ball for 2012; A European View UK 2012 contributor Peter N C Cooke, the most published author on the Automotive Industry in Europe; PMG Professor of Automotive Management and head of the centre for Automotive Management at the University of Buckingham.

American Chemistry Council Year-End 2011 Situation and Outlook 2012 USA 2012 contributor Dr Thomas Kevin Swift, Chief Economist & Managing Director of Economics & Statistics Department, American Chemistry Council, Washington DC.

Federal Reserve US 2012 Economic Outlook US 2012 contributor Harvey Rosenblum, Executive Vice President & Director of Research, and David Luttrell, Senior Economic Analyst and Coordinator of Economic and Financial Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Texas.

STRATFOR Global Intelligence Annual Forecast 2012 USA 2012 contributor George Friedman, Founder, Chief Intelligence Officer, and CEO of STRATOR Global Intelligence, Austin Texas; a subscription-based provider of geopolitical analysis for a thorough understanding of international affairs, including what is happening, why it is happening, and what will happen next using a unique, intelligence-based approach to gathering information via rigorous open-source monitoring and a global network of human sources to make the complexity of the world understandable to an intelligent readership, without ideology, agenda, or national bias.

U.S. and North Texas 2012 Outlook US 2012 Bernard Weinstein, Maguire Energy Institute, Cox School of Business, Southern Methodist University, Dallas Texas.

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Environmental Determinants of Overseas Market Entry Strategies Dr. James Goodnow and Dr. James Hansz received the Decade Award from the Academy of International Business for their 1972 article published in the Journal of International Business Studies.

Making the Case: Effectively Advocating an Old Idea in Modern Times recipient Evgeniy Gentchev awarded the 2010 Fellowship Junior Faculty Division First Prize in the Sir John M Templeton Fellowship Essay Contest published in the Independent Review Quarterly Journal.

The science of Cold Fusion is to produce heat by placing nickel powder of very small particle size nano-meters to micro-meters in a pressurized hydrogen environment and catalysts that enhance heat to approximately 450 – 500 Celsius when an exothermal nuclear reaction may start taking place. The purpose is to create a reaction that releases a large amount of energy while consuming very few grams of light hydrogen and nickel powder of only two isotopes of nickel 62Ni and 64Ni. One benefit is that one gram of nickel can produce as much energy as 500 barrels of oil.

Andrea Rossi is an Italian physicist, entrepreneur and creator of the cold fusion device Energy Catalyzer, which is a device capable of producing more than 10 kilowatts of heat power, while only consuming a fraction of energy. Andrea Rossi was born in Milan Italy 3 June 1950 and credited with several patents in chemistry and physics. His studies at the University of Milan earned distinction with a dissertation on Albert Einstein’s Theory of Relativity and its relationship with Husserl’s Phenomenology. At present, he serves as President and Founder of Leonardo Technologies Incorporated of Bedford, New Hampshire in the US.

Engineer Andrea Rossi and Professor Sergio Focardi of the University of Bologna announced on 14 January 2011, the Worlds’ first public demonstration of a nickel-hydrogen fusion reactor capable of producing a few kilowatts of thermal energy. When the hydrogen is heated at a given temperature with the input power of a simple resistor of approximately 1000 watts and the ignition temperature is reached, the energy production process starts when the hydrogen atoms penetrate into the nickel and transform it into copper. At its peak, the 1 megawatt e-cat cold fusion device Energy Catalyzer generated 15,000 watts with just 400 watts input energy. In a five hour sustained test, which produced 479 kilowatts refers to heat and not electricity; thus, no cold fusion device anywhere has actually generated electricity to date. In another test, the same output of 450 to 500 Celsius starts a reaction achieving about 80 watts of continual input. One hundred grams of nickel powder may power the device up to six months, since only a small amount of nickel reacts with the hydrogen so that 90% of the nickel remains and can be extracted, re-processed and re-used as fuel. This work has been replicated.
Ampenergo,E-cat,Focardi,Invest,News,Rossi 28 October 2011.

This evolving science seems to be technologically and ecologically green friendly, since it does not utilize any radioactive elements, does not produce any radioactive waste, and does not emit greenhouse gases or particulate matter that may cause environmental problems.

Could this Low Energy Nuclear Reaction be the start of a new revolution in a new science leading to Cold Fusion energy that might produce enough heat to provide the energy necessary to generate power for transportation and electricity.

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ALERT Thursday May 17th 

Banking Panic in Europe 

Spaniards withdrew $1.27 billion in cash from one of the country’s largest banks.

In Greece, more than $1 billion was withdrawn from banks in one day.

United States  

Productivity ↓ 0.5% (output per hour worked)

Hours Worked ↑ 3.2% (hours worked)

Savings ↓ 4.5% to ↓ 3.9%  (personal – historical 20% – 50%)

Consumer Confidence ↓ 94.4 points to ↓ 70.2 to ↓ 69.2 

Consumer Sentiment ↓ 75.7 points to ↑ 76.4  (Thomson Reuters and theUniversity ofMichigan)

Consumer Spending ↑ 0.8% rate to ↓ 0.3% rate; ↑ 4.1% to ↓ 1.8% Y/Y 

Consumer Debt ↑ 0.3% to ↑ 10.2%; ↑ 5.0% Y/Y

Consumer Prices ↑ 2.3%; ↑ 2.7% Y/Y (government) ↑ 10.2% (market)

Income ↓ 1.7% (inflation adjusted wages – government - declining) ↑ 3.2% Y/Y (government) ↓ 2.5% – 26.5% Y/Y (market – non-farm – dropping) ↓ 11.5% Y/Y (market – farm – dropping) 

Income ↑ 0.4%; ↑ 0.6% Y/Y (DPI – disposable personal income)

Education World Rank ↓ 14th (Students Rank : Program for International Student Assessment)

Education Literacy ↑ 99% to ↓ 75% (since creation of Department of Education in 1980)

Work Force ↑ 160,000,000

Non-Farm Payrolls ↑ 120,000 

Population Employed  ↑ 58.5%

Employees at Home ↑ 0.1%

Employees Overseas ↑ 1.5% (expanding)

Unemployment Rate Level U-3  ↑ 9.2% to ↓ 8.1% (government unemployment insurance claims)                                                                                                                     (U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force or official government reported unemployment rate) 

Unemployment Rate Level U-6 ↑ 22.8% (government) ↑ 33.3% rate (market)                                                                                                                              (U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force) 

Unemployment 16-19 Years ↑ 50.1% (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Jobless Removed from Unemployment Calculations 16-54 Years ↑ 74% (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Construction Spending ↓ 1.1% rate; ↑ 5.8% Y/Y 

Home Building Permits ↑ 4.5% to ↓ 7.0%  rate; ↓ 23.7% Y/Y 

Home Prices ↓ 0.8%

Housing Starts ↓ 5.8% rate; ↑ 10.3% Y/Y

New Home Sales ↓ 7.1% rate; ↑ 7.5% Y/Y

Existing Home Sales ↓ 2.6% rate; ↑ 5.2% Y/Y

Single Family Home Sales ↓ 7.1%

Retail Sales ↑ 0.8% to ↓ 0.1% rate; ↑ 6.4% Y/Y

Consumer Debt ↑ 8.6% rate; ↑ 0.6% Y/Y

Consumer Prices ↑ 0.4% rate; ↑ 2.9% Y/Y

Producer Prices ↑ 0.4% rate; ↑ 3.3% Y/Y

Import Prices ↑ 1.3% rate; ↑ 3.4% Y/Y

ISM Manufacturing↑ 1.4 points to 54.8 (expanding to contracting)

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI ↓ 2.5 points to 53.5 (expanding to contracting)

Industrial Production ↓ 1.2%; ↑ 3.8% Y/Y

Capacity Utilization  ↓ 0.1 points to 78.6%

CPRI  ↔ flat ↑ 0.3%; ↑ 1.1% Y/Y  (CPRI – Chemical Production Regional Indices)

Light Vehicle Sales  ↓ 14.4 million-unit pace

Wholesale Trade ↓ 1.2%; ↑ 9.3% Y/Y

Factory Orders ↑ 1.5%; ↑ 3.3% Y/Y

Durable Goods Orders ↓ 4.2%; ↑ 1.0% Y/Y

PMI ↓ 54.8% (Purchasing Manager’s Index) 

Business Inventories ↑ 0.7% rate; ↑ 7.6% Y/Y

Railcar Loadings ↓ 1,333 to ↓ 1,005; ↓ 1.3% Y/Y (13-week moving average)

Trade Deficit ↑ $2.1 to ↑ $6.4 billion; $51.8 billion Y/Y  

National Debt ↑ $14.5 T (government) ↑  $211.6 T (market)

GDP ↓ $14.6 T (Gross Domestic Product : economy produced goods and services)

GDP ↑ 3.0% to 2.2% SAAR rate; ↑ 1.5% Y/Y

Military ↓ 1.6 m (active-duty)

United Kingdom

UK Economy ↓ 0.3% (contracting)

Europe  

EU Consumer Confidence ↓ 94.4 gauge

EU Unemployment Rate ↑ 10.9% 

EU National Economy ↓ 0.3% (contracting)

EU Retail Sales ↓ 1.9% (contracting) 

EU PMI ↓ 45.9% (Purchasing Manager’s Index) 

France

France Economy ↓ 0.3% (contracting)

France National Debt ↑ $795.0 billion 

France Unemployment ↑ 2.9 million

France Consumer Spending ↓ 2.9% 

France Industrial Production  ↓ 1.2% (contracting)

Greece

Greece National Debt ↑ 162% (debt-to-GDP)

Italy  

Italy Economy ↓ 1.2% (contracting)

Italy National Debt ↑ 114% (debt-to-GDP)

Italy National Debt ↑ $795.0 billion

Italy Consumer Confidence ↓ 89.5 points 

Italy Unemployment ↑ 9.8%

Italy Unemployment Youth ↑ 25.0%

Italy Industrial Sales ↓ 12.0% Y/Y

Spain

Spain Economy ↓ 1.7% (contracting)

Spain National Debt ↑ 200.0% (debt-to-GDP)

Spain Budget Deficit ↑ 8.5% (percent of GDP)

Spain Unemployment ↑ 24.4%

Spain Unemployment Youth Under 25 Years  ↑ 50.0%

Portugal

Portugal Economy ↓ 3.4% (contracting)

Portugal Unemployment Youth ↑ 25.0%

China  

China Income ↑ 7.6% (inflation adjusted wages)

China Education World Rank ↑ 1st (Students Rank : Program for International Student Assessment)

China Work Force ↑ 810,000,000

China GDP ↑ $14.8 T (Gross Domestic Product : economy produced goods and services)

China GDP Growth ↑ 9.2% (2011) to ↓ 8.1% (contracting)

China Consumer Prices ↑ 3.2% to ↑ 3.6%

China Retail Sales ↓ 14.7% to ↑ 15.2%

China Home Prices ↓

China Manufacturing ↓ (contracting)

China Exports ↑ 8.9%

China Computer Speed ↑China’s Tianhe-1A super computer is the fastest in the world, capable of processing more than 2.5 thousand trillion calculations per second

China Military ↓ 2.2 m (largest active-duty military in world)

India

India GDP Growth ↓ 0.7% from ↓10.0% to (contracting)

Japan

Japan Economy ↓ 0.7% (contracting)

Global

Global CPRI  ↔ flat ↑ 1.5% Y/Y  (CPRI – Chemical Production Regional Indices)

Global Manufacturing ↓ 0.1 points to 51.1 (JP Morgan)

Global Semiconductor Sales ↓ 1.6%; ↓ 7.9% Y/Y

Strategic Resources  

Gold ↓ $1,643.30 (per ounce)

Oil ↓ $97.08 to ↓ $92.56  (Oil per barrel: 42US gallons, 158.9873 litres, 34.9723 Imperial (UK) gallons)

Natural Gas ↑ $2.34 to ↑ $2.56